The All-Star break has come and gone, and more than 60 percent of the 2025 schedule is complete. So when it comes to awards races, we have a pretty good idea of how things are shaping up. Or do we?
After all, there is still a lot of baseball left to be played, and plenty of time for someone to make a post-break run at glory. Therefore, we tasked six MLB.com writers and researchers with identifying these dark horses -- one per each of the six biggest offseason awards handed out by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America (BBWAA): AL and NL MVP, AL and NL Cy Young, and AL and NL Rookie of the Year.
Our criteria here was simple: Pick a player who did not finish in the top two in MLB.com’s most recent staff poll for that award. How bold did our writers go? Read on to find out.
All statistics updated through Sunday.
AL MVP: Riley Greene, Tigers
Leading candidates: Aaron Judge (Yankees), Cal Raleigh (Mariners)
Tarik Skubal is eligible here, but it’s difficult to label the best pitcher in baseball and the reigning unanimous AL Cy Young Award winner as an MVP dark horse in good faith. So let’s turn our attention to another Tiger who started Tuesday’s All-Star Game.
Just 24 years old, Greene has already slugged 25 home runs this season, besting his career high from 2024. That puts him on pace for 41 dingers, which would be the most by any Tiger at such a young age, passing the 36 homers that a 24-year-old Hank Greenberg hit in 1935 -- when he was named AL MVP.
Greene’s bat has packed quite a wallop thanks to his extreme uppercut swing, but he is doing more than showcasing his power; he is becoming a more complete hitter. Non-fastballs have given him fits at times in the past, but this season, Greene is batting .292 with a .595 slugging percentage against breaking balls and offspeed pitches. That’s helped him post a bevy of personal bests, including a 140 wRC+, which ranks eighth among qualified AL hitters.
Greene is not a finished product; he still whiffs and chases out of the strike zone too often. But he is the best offensive player on the team with the AL’s best record. That fact alone makes him worthy of MVP consideration.
-- Brian Murphy
NL MVP: Ronald Acuña Jr., Braves
Leading candidates: Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers), Pete Crow-Armstrong (Cubs)
Rewind to July 10, 2021. Acuña makes a leaping attempt at a deep fly ball to right field in Miami, comes down awkwardly and sustains a torn ACL. The Braves win that day to improve to 44-44 but lose five of their next seven games, and hope for a playoff berth seems lost.
Only the Braves get hot, stay hot and go on to win the World Series without their best player, who eventually heals up and captures his first MVP award with an absurd 40-70 season in 2023.
Now imagine that happening in reverse. Acuña returns from another torn ACL to a struggling Braves team with dwindling postseason chances. And this time he’s the one leading the charge. It’s a scenario still in play in 2025. Barely.
Let’s say he cracks 18 second-half home runs and reaches 30 for the year. The Braves sneak into a Wild Card spot while playing their best baseball down the stretch.
We know baseball writers love a good narrative, and what could top that? After all, it’s the Most Valuable Player award, and it’s tough to generate more value than leading your team to the postseason against all odds and reminding everyone of your superstar status along the way.
Like in 2021, the Braves will probably need a significant addition or two at the Trade Deadline to even think about reaching the postseason, and who knows if they’ll even be buyers? But so far, Acuña is doing his part, with a 1.047 OPS and 13 home runs in 48 games.
Two-and-a-half more months of that, and we might have a two-time MVP on our hands.
-- Jeffrey Lutz
AL Cy Young: Jacob deGrom, Rangers
Leading candidates: Tarik Skubal (Tigers), Hunter Brown (Astros)
After unanimously winning the AL Cy Young Award last year, Skubal figures to have more competition this year. That could be Hunter Brown, Garrett Crochet, Max Fried and deGrom, who are all having excellent seasons.
In the case of deGrom, it’s been quite the experience to see him back in full force on the mound. After throwing just 197 1/3 innings across 35 starts from 2021-24, deGrom has a 2.32 ERA, 113 strikeouts and just 24 walks in 112 1/3 innings this year. The 37-year-old right-hander cleared 100 innings in a season for the first time since 2019 and he made his first All-Star team since 2021.
Among qualified American League starters, deGrom’s 2.32 ERA only trails the 2.19 mark by Skubal and Crochet, while he ranks in the top 10 in FIP (3.28), strikeout rate (26.2 percent) and walk rate (5.6 percent). This feels like Skubal’s race to lose right now, but deGrom and a handful of other pitchers are in a strong enough position to make this race interesting.
Plus, if deGrom can grab a third Cy Young Award, he’d be just the 12th pitcher to pull that off, and would make himself a legitimate Hall of Fame contender, despite the fact that his injuries robbed a huge chunk of his 30s.
-- Brent Maguire
NL Cy Young: Cristopher Sánchez, Phillies
Leading candidates: Zack Wheeler (Phillies), Paul Skenes (Pirates)
Sánchez may not have been an All-Star, but he sure is pitching like one of the best pitchers in baseball. Among qualified starting pitchers, the left-hander ranks inside the top 10 in ERA (2.50) and FIP (2.75); his 3.2 fWAR is the fourth highest among NL pitchers, trailing only Zack Wheeler, Paul Skenes, and Logan Webb. Sánchez’s wipeout changeup is one of the game’s elite weapons, holding the opposition to a .146 batting average with a 46.2% whiff rate. Meanwhile, his power sinker helps generate a ground ball rate in the 96th percentile.
After a so-so start to the season -- he carried a 3.45 ERA into May -- Sánchez has pitched like an ace for a while now. Since June 1, he’s posted a 1.63 ERA in an eight-start span. He’s a throwback workhorse, too: Sánchez has allowed two runs or fewer while pitching at least six innings in eight consecutive starts. That’s the longest such streak for any starting pitcher in the Majors this season.
The path to the Cy Young Award is never easy (just ask Wheeler, who is still searching for his first). But Sánchez has earned the right to be in the conversation, and if he keeps this up, he’ll be mentioned in the same breath as the favorites.
-- Jared Greenspan
AL Rookie of the Year: Noah Cameron, Royals
Leading candidates: Jacob Wilson (A’s), Nick Kurtz (A’s)
Cameron came on late, but he's trending upward -- he was just edged out of the top five in our most recent poll, currently fighting Roman Anthony and Jasson Domínguez for those down-ballot votes and maybe hurt somewhat by the fact that of the three, he was easily the least-hyped prospect.
In addition to his 2.31 ERA -- he's given up two runs or fewer in 10 of 12 starts -- guys are just having a hard time hitting him. He's only given up 48 hits in 70 innings. That's 6.19 hits per nine, which, looking at the pool of pitchers with at least 50 IP this year, would make him slightly easier to hit than Wheeler, Carlos Rodón, Brown and Skenes -- and that's it. Granted, he's issued too many walks, and that will play a part in how hittable a guy is, but opponents are hitting a combined .158 with a .204 SLG against his changeup, slider and curveball, so he's clearly been making it work.
This would genuinely be a cool achievement -- Cameron is 26 years old, was a seventh-round pick out of Central Arkansas (a school that's produced just four other big leaguers) and pitched himself into legitimate prospect status as a professional. What's more, since Angel Berroa won the award in 2003, no Royal has finished any higher than third in Rookie of the Year voting, and in the years since, 11 of the other 14 AL clubs have had at least one winner.
-- Shanthi Sepe-Chepuru
NL Rookie of the Year: Yohel Pozo, Cardinals
Leading candidates: Jacob Misiorowski (Brewers), Drake Baldwin (Braves)
Pozo has had an interesting journey in baseball. He debuted in the Majors in 2021 with a 21-game stint as a member of the Rangers. Since then, he's been mostly a Minor League journeyman, with stints in the Rangers, A's and Cardinals organizations. This included a time in 2020 when he and his family were homeless and living out of his car. But after a four-year absence, he's back in the bigs this season with St. Louis and definitely making the most of the opportunity at age 28.
Through Sunday, he was hitting .302 with an .817 OPS, the latter mark ranking second only to Braves catcher Drake Baldwin (.828) among NL rookies with at least 100 plate appearances. But the big caveat here is that Pozo (101 PAs) has not played nearly as much as Baldwin (224 PAs) and Marlins catcher/designated hitter Agustín Ramírez (315 PAs), the two other position players considered to be top contenders. And that may not change down the stretch if Pozo continues to platoon with Pedro Pagés behind the plate. He also doesn't have the flash or hype of leading candidate Jacob Misiorowski, which could work against him.
But if he's able to get at-bats and keep producing in the Majors, and if that helps the Cardinals capture a Wild Card spot, it'll be a feel-good story that's hard to ignore.
-- Jason Foster