Wheeler isn’t the only Phillies pitcher vying for a Cy Young

12:39 AM UTC

As the Phillies march towards a potential fourth straight playoff appearance -- which would be the second-longest stretch in franchise history -- you can look at multiple stars doing what they’ve done for years.

While we’ve come to expect star-level performance from guys like Zack Wheeler, Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber and Trea Turner, the Phillies have found an unlikely source of stardom in over the last two seasons.

Acquired from the Rays in exchange for Curtis Mead in a November 2019 deal, Sánchez never appeared on any top 100 prospect lists. He debuted in 2021 in his age-24 season and through his first two seasons, Sánchez had a 5.47 ERA in 52 1/3 innings, mostly out of the Phillies bullpen.

After a strong showing in 2023, when Sánchez had a 3.44 ERA and 1.8 Wins Above Replacement (FanGraphs version) in 99 1/3 innings, the left-hander took off in ‘24, posting a 3.32 ERA and 4.7 WAR in 31 starts while becoming a first-time All-Star and finishing 10th in NL Cy Young Award voting.

Sánchez has been even better this season, with the lefty posting a 2.55 ERA and 3.5 WAR with sparkling underlying numbers that suggest what the 28-year-old is doing is legitimate. With the way he’s going, Sánchez has a real shot to contend for the Cy Young Award along with his teammate Wheeler and the Pirates’ Paul Skenes.

“I’d love that,” Sánchez said about being in the Cy Young mix after his 12-strikeout complete game against the Red Sox on July 22. “It’s a dream for me.”

Here’s how Sánchez -- who starts on Sunday Night Baseball against the Tigers -- has ascended to this new level and why he just might be one of the best starters in baseball now.

The following numbers are entering Saturday's games.

His stuff is elite

When Sánchez debuted in 2021, it was unclear what kind of role he’d have. According to his 2022 prospect report from MLB Pipeline, Sánchez had the “stuff to start,” but his “ultimate role might be determined by his ability to find the strike zone.”

It’s now abundantly clear that Sánchez has the stuff and command to start, but it’s his ability to miss more bats this season that has helped take him to the next level.

After running a 21.7 percent strikeout rate from 2023-24, Sánchez is now punching out 26.3 percent of opposing batters, a top 20 mark among qualifying starters this season. Across the board, Sánchez has been one of the biggest improvers among qualifying starters in strikeouts and overall stuff.

Sánchez in 2024 vs. ‘25

Whiff rate: 24.3% vs. 30.1% (third-largest jump among qualifying starters)
Strikeout rate: 20.3% vs. 26.73% (fourth-largest)
Fastball velocity: 94.4 mph vs. 95.3 mph (t-11th-largest)
Stuff+: 107 vs. 114

Sánchez has punched out 139 hitters, 11th-most in the Majors, and has struck out 11 or more batters in three starts, including 12 strikeouts on April 17 against the Giants and most recently in a complete-game effort against Boston on July 22. His 114 Stuff+ -- which looks at the physical characteristics of a pitch -- only trails Tarik Skubal (117) among qualified starters.

This was a potential development we saw coming earlier this year, when Sánchez showed up to Spring Training much stronger and with a fastball consistently clocking in the upper 90s.

“Last year, I pitched 180 innings, the most in my career,” Sánchez said through the team’s interpreter during Spring Training. “So I just wanted to make sure that my body was in good shape for this year, to get stronger and go through this year healthy without an injury.”

Sánchez’s walk rate has jumped in each of the last two years, from 4.0 percent in 2023 to 6.2 percent this season, but the trade-off has been worth it. And a 6.2 percent walk rate is still comfortably better than league-average.

The jump in fastball velocity has seemingly helped open the door for his already-great changeup to become one of the best pitches in all of baseball. Like his fastball, Sánchez is also throwing his changeup harder (85.1 mph last year, 86.1 mph this season) and for an added bonus, the pitch is getting an additional 1.5 inches of drop.

With exceptional command of his changeup at the bottom of the zone, Sánchez is doing things that few other pitchers are doing with an individual pitch.

Sánchez’s changeup ranks among all pitches in 2025

Strikeouts: 87 (third-most)
Whiffs: 177 (third-most)
Whiff rate: 46.8% (fourth-highest, min. 200 swings)
Run Value: +14 (t-11th-highest)

Sánchez’s changeup is truly one of the elite offerings in the sport -- and for good measure, the lefty has also received excellent results on a slider he’s throwing 16.3 percent of the time. Opposing hitters have a .197 batting average in 81 plate appearances ending on the slider and have whiffed 33.8 percent of the time.

He’s tough to square up, too

Hitters are already having a hard enough time making contact against Sánchez, especially when they’re seeing the elite changeup and strong slider. Even when they do make contact, hitters aren’t doing too much with it.

Sánchez was already one of the top starters at limiting barrels -- batted balls hit with an optimal combo of exit velocity and launch angle that typically result in extra-base hits. Sánchez’s 5.4 percent barrel rate last season ranked 10th among qualifying starters. It’s been more of the same this season, with Sánchez’s 5.4 percent barrel rate only trailing the 4.8 percent mark from Skenes.

That’s largely due to his elite ground-ball rate, yet another ingredient in Sánchez’s game that has made him so tough. Sánchez’s 58.4 percent ground-ball rate is fourth best among qualified starters, behind only José Soriano, Andre Pallante and Framber Valdez.

Because of Sánchez’s excellent strikeout and ground-ball rates, opposing hitters have a .345 expected slugging percentage -- based on quality of contact and strikeouts -- the eighth-best mark among qualifying starters.

It’s not just the stuff and command that makes Sánchez a tough matchup. At 6-foot-6, he’s a towering presence that gets on hitters really quick. His 7.0 feet of extension ranks in the 92nd percentile and means that his stuff is probably looking even tougher for opposing hitters. Any way you slice it, Sánchez has the characteristics of a capital A ace.

Luckily for the Phillies, they’ll have a front-row seat of this for the next half-decade. Last June, Sánchez and the Phillies agreed to a four-year deal that will keep him around through at least 2028, with affordable club options for 2029 and ‘30.

Just two years ago, it was still unclear what kind of impact Sánchez would have in the Majors. In short order, Sánchez has become one of the top starters in the sport.