KANSAS CITY -- Clayton Kershaw’s 18-year journey to the elusive 3,000 strikeout club is nearing its end.
Kershaw, sitting at 2,997 strikeouts, will get a chance to complete the rare feat at Dodger Stadium on Wednesday against the White Sox -- in what’ll be his 441st game (438th start) with Los Angeles.
The next accomplishment in what is likely to be a Hall of Fame career for Kershaw is one of the most difficult, with only 19 pitchers in MLB history having notched 3,000 K’s. He would be just the fourth lefty (CC Sabathia, Randy Johnson and Steve Carlton) and only the third to do it with one team (Walter Johnson, Senators; Bob Gibson, Cardinals).
“I think [Kershaw] encapsulates the idea of adapt or die,” said teammate Jack Dreyer, 26. “He’s been playing in the big leagues since I was 9. He’s been through a lot of different stages of who he is as a pitcher. The ability to change how you pitch or how you face guys is the biggest thing, because there are plenty of guys who are talented with elite stuff, whatever it takes, but they can only do it for so long because they’re unwilling to change.”
The Blue Jays' Max Scherzer and the Giants' Justin Verlander are the only active pitchers who have reached 3,000 strikeouts.
The next closest are the Braves’ Chris Sale (2,528) and the Yankees’ Gerrit Cole (2,251), who both were mentioned by Kershaw as possible future entries, but they are certainly not a guarantee. Based on Sale’s 2025 strikeout pace, he would need roughly 370 more innings to reach the 3,000-K club. Without factoring in health or opportunity, that would come no earlier than, at best, the end of 2027, his age-38 season.
For Cole, who will miss all of 2025 due to Tommy John surgery, his 2024 pace would require him to toss 719 more frames to reach 3,000 strikeouts. Based on his career average of 163 innings per season, it would take Cole until his 2030 season, when he will be 39 years old.
Given the way the game has leaned toward increased bullpen usage, it would be unlikely even those two potential Hall of Famers will continue to put up the number of innings they have in recent years in three, four or five seasons from now.
“It’s just a product of the game changing a little bit as far as usage and different things starting to change,” Kershaw said. “I’ve talked about it before, I think the game would be better off if we tried to reemphasize starting pitching a little bit more. The problem is that bullpens are so good now, that when you have a chance to have a bullpen guy come out instead of a starter the third time through the lineup, [and] when the guy’s throwing really hard and really good, it’s tough to argue.
“At the end of the day, there’s a lot of guys capable of striking out 3,000 people. They just need the opportunity.”
To put in perspective the longevity needed to reach 3,000, the strikeout leader last season, Tarik Skubal, notched 225 K’s. It would take over 13 of those same seasons to reach 3K. For someone like Paul Skenes, who has taken the league by storm with 280 K’s in his first 239 IP, he would need roughly 2,322 more IP with his current K/9 pace to reach the elusive 3,000 strikeout club.
The Braves’ Charlie Morton (41 years old; 2,124 K’s) and the Padres’ Yu Darvish (38; 2,007) are the only other active pitchers with more than 1,860 strikeouts.
“You know, you say that [no one is reaching 3,000 again] until it’s not [true], but again, you got to start early, you got to stay healthy, you got to be great,” manager Dave Roberts said. “Guys aren’t punching 12, 13 guys out a game and going on five days’ rest instead of four days’ rest these days. So you’re not getting the 32-34 starts, either. So yeah, it’s going to be a tough one [to reach].”
That’s what makes Kershaw’s individual feat so special, and those in the clubhouse are as excited as anyone to watch history.
“Obviously, [Kershaw’s] got some of the best stuff ever,” lefty Justin Wrobleski said. “In my eyes, probably the best left-handed pitcher ever.
“It’s crazy. It’s something that might not ever happen again, so it’s cool to get to witness the journey to it here at the end.”