When Ceddanne Rafaela hit his dramatic walk-off home run against the Rays on July 11 and gave the Red Sox their eighth straight win, it was a signature moment for the blossoming 24-year-old.
The former top prospect struggled in his first two seasons from 2023-24, posting a .246/.275/.389 slash line across 660 plate appearances. Even with his strong defense and baserunning making him a useful utility player, the bottom-tier offense made Rafaela roughly a replacement-level player.
After starting this season on a similar trajectory, Rafaela has erupted since the beginning of June, bringing his season line up to .271/.313/.480 through Friday’s games. Entering the All-Star break, Rafaela’s 3.4 Wins Above Replacement (FanGraphs) was tops among Red Sox position players and 17th-best in the Majors.
With a newfound offensive level and otherworldly center-field defense, Rafaela has taken a very similar path to the Cubs’ Pete Crow-Armstrong, which is fitting considering the two are facing off at Wrigley Field this weekend.
How did Rafaela turn things around and become a potential budding star for the Red Sox? Let’s dive in.
The following numbers are entering Saturday.
Improvements across the board
Rafaela has improved across the board by pretty much any measure you use, on the offensive and defensive side of things.
Rafaela has improved his batting average from .246 to .271 this season, tied for the 30th-largest increase among qualified players from 2024 to ‘25. His 39-point increase from a .274 OBP to a .312 OBP is tied for the 22nd-largest.
But Rafaela has really shone in the power department, increasing his slugging percentage from .390 to .480, tied for the 13th-largest jump of any hitter. Rafaela has slugged 14 home runs in 93 games, nearly matching his total of 15 homers last season in 152 games.
The good news for Rafaela: he’s earned every bit of his new level of power according to various Statcast metrics.
Rafaela’s power improvements from 2024 to ‘25
Rafaela has also made sizable changes in his plate discipline, no small development considering how extreme his approach was before this season.
Rafaela’s plate discipline improvements from 2024 to ‘25
Walk rate: 2.6% vs. 4.6%
Strikeout rate: 26.4% vs. 19.1%
Chase rate: 46.4% vs. 42.0%
Whiff rate: 33.0% vs. 26.1%
Zone contact rate: 75.0% vs. 83.0%
Then there’s the elite defense in center field. Rafaela played five positions last season but only graded out well in center field, where he had five Outs Above Average (he was at a minus seven at shortstop). Now penciled in as the everyday center fielder in Boston, Rafaela has taken off.
Rafaela’s 14 Outs Above Average are second among all outfielders behind … Crow-Armstrong, who we alluded to as having taken a similar path as Boston’s center fielder. By Defensive Runs Saved, Rafaela is at +15, tied with Adolis García for the second-best among outfielders behind Crow-Armstrong. Rafaela has used an 88th percentile sprint speed and elite jump times to become a vacuum in center field, as well as using his 96th percentile arm strength to throw out six runners this season.
Rafaela has also used that speed to produce value on the bases, swiping 13 bags and adding three runs of Baserunning Value, putting him in the 94th percentile. Add everything together and it’s easy to see why Rafaela has been one of the best all-around players.
“I think now he's understanding to chase good at bats. Defensively, he's been elite. You see the numbers and it's up there with the best, if not the best,” Red Sox manager Alex Cora told MLB.com. “We’re very happy with him. He’s still young, but I joke with him that he's the veteran in the lineup now but we’re very pleased with the progress.”
He’s been even better since June 1
Even better news for Rafaela and the Red Sox: He’s been a top five player in baseball going back to the beginning of June.
fWAR leaders since June 1:
Byron Buxton, 2.6
Cal Raleigh, 2.4
Ceddanne Rafaela, 2.3
Juan Soto, 2.3
Elly De La Cruz: 2.2
That’s pretty good company. In 38 games since June 1, Rafaela has a .314/.347/.642 slash line with 11 home runs and a 168 wRC+. But it gets even better than that. Rafaela has shown a very clear month-to-month improvement after starting the season slow.
Rafaela’s month-by-month splits
March/April (104 PA): .598 OPS // 63 wRC+ // .339 xwOBA
May (96 PA): .698 OPS // 89 wRC+ // .322 xwOBA
June (99 PA): .870 OPS // 136 wRC+ // .340 xwOBA
July (46 PA): 1.236 OPS // 236 wRC+ // .414 xwOBA
After having one of the best months of his career in June, Rafaela has been an unstoppable force in July. Whereas Rafaela looked like he just might be a below-average MLB bat through the end of May, he’s exploded since then, especially so in July.
This month, 17.9 percent of his batted balls are classified as barrels, while his hard-hit rate is a robust 51.3 percent. He’s also whiffing on just 20.4 percent of his swings, exactly 10 percent lower than his career 30.4 percent mark.
“I've been so impressed with his at-bats," Red Sox shortstop Trevor Story said. "And just the way he's playing the game right now is at an All-Star level. Playing amazing defense in center field and the at-bats are just, you know, so consistent. And he's hitting the ball really hard. You can see that he's in total control of the at-bat. For a young player he's got a lot of confidence playing with it right now. It's fun to watch. He's an amazing player, and I think he's just getting better.”
The importance for the Red Sox
Now take a step back and think about the chaos of the 2025 Red Sox season. After acquiring Alex Bregman and Garrett Crochet over the offseason, the industry-wide belief was that this was a club that could not only contend for the AL East division but also for a World Series.
Once Spring Training started, there was the Rafael Devers drama that culminated in his June 15 trade to the Giants. Amidst that, Boston struggled to get anything meaningful going, with the Red Sox going 42-44 through the end of June and essentially remaining around the .500 mark the entire season.
Then, the Red Sox got scorching hot, ripping off a 10-game winning streak to end the first half and putting them back in the playoff mix. While there are certainly other Red Sox players responsible for this -- such as Crochet, Story, Roman Anthony and Lucas Giolito -- it’s hard to not put Rafaela at the forefront of this turnaround.
As Rafaela has taken off, so have the Red Sox. It’s a significant development for Boston, especially in the post-Devers era and with the looming possibility of Bregman opting out of his contract after this season.
Entering the season, much of the hype around Boston’s core of youngsters centered around their trio top prospects: Anthony, Kristian Campbell and Marcelo Mayer. Now, with the development of Rafaela over the last two months, the Red Sox have the makings of a legitimate young offensive core, a group that could help get Boston to the playoffs this season.
“So, like I tell him, he's my favorite player. He’s my favorite player to watch,” Story said. “He’s just electric. He brings a lot to our team, obviously, and he's been on a heater so it's been fun.”
MLB.com’s Ian Browne contributed to the reporting of this article.