There is only one certainty when it comes to the American League Most Valuable Player race: somebody is going to win.
Whether that’s Aaron Judge or Cal Raleigh will come down to how the 30 voters weigh overall offensive excellence against power and defense.
As the two sluggers mash down the stretch, the AL MVP race is as intriguing as it’s been in quite some time. There has been only one tie in the history of the MVP Award, when Keith Hernandez and Willie Stargell shared the National League honor in 1979.
Joe DiMaggio edged Ted Williams by one point for the AL honor in 1947. In 1996, Juan Gonzalez beat out Alex Rodriguez by three points, the same margin by which Roger Maris beat Mickey Mantle in 1960. Maris squeaked by Mantle again in 1961, this time by a whopping four points.
Other close AL races came in 1944 (Hal Newhouser over Dizzy Trout, 4 points), 2001 (Ichiro Suzuki over Jason Giambi, 8 points) and 1995 (Mo Vaughn over Albert Belle, 8 points).
Three years ago, there was a great debate between Judge and Shohei Ohtani, though Judge wound up with 28 of 30 first-place votes. In 2012, Miguel Cabrera vs. Mike Trout was the hot topic, but Cabrera’s Triple Crown resulted in 22 of 28 first-place votes going his way.
Judge vs. Raleigh has the potential to join the list of closest MVP votes in history, especially as both players continue to rake in September with their teams fighting for postseason positioning.
We polled more than a dozen front office executives, asking whether they would vote for Judge or Raleigh for the award, gauging how they see the race shaping up. Predictably, the results were close:
Cal Raleigh: 7 votes
Aaron Judge: 6 votes
Tie: 1 vote
“Holy cow, that’s a tough call; I’m actually glad I don’t have a vote,” said one NL executive. “I would lean towards Judge because I think he’s had the better overall season in terms of quality of performance. The home run total and positional advantage would go to Raleigh, but outside of that, I think you can put Judge ahead across the board. And as weird as it might sound, I actually think the Yankees would miss him more than the Mariners would miss Raleigh. I can’t believe I’m saying that, but I think Judge is that important to them.”
Entering play Thursday, Judge was leading all AL hitters in every slash category at .329/.453./.679, while also leading the league in runs scored (127), walks (114), total bases (344) and OPS+ (211). He also tops the list in both bWAR (8.6) and fWAR (9.0). Raleigh’s bWAR is 6.7 and his fWAR is 8.4, both second in the league behind Judge.
Judge’s 211 OPS+ puts him on track to top the 200 mark for the third time in four seasons. No other player has reached that mark even once in a 162-game season since Barry Bonds in 2004.
“Judge has been the best player,” another NL executive said. “If there was a pickup baseball game in the park and I have the first pick, I’m taking him.”
Judge appeared to be running away with the award when an elbow injury grinded his season to a halt in late July. He missed only 10 games before returning in a designated hitter role, and while he recently returned to playing right field on a part-time basis, his 55 games at DH could have an impact on the voters’ decision.
That’s because Raleigh – who leads the AL with 56 home runs and 118 RBIs compared to Judge’s 48 and 103 – doesn’t just play the most challenging position in the game; he does it about as well as any catcher in the Majors.
“Had Judge continued the Bonds-like start he got off to, I might think differently,” an AL executive said. “But as is, I’d go with the all-around monster year from the guy playing the most demanding position on the field.”
Last year’s Platinum Glove winner may have taken a slight step backward in terms of defensive metrics in 2025, but he remains a premier defender behind the plate, leading a pitching staff that has the Mariners neck and neck with the Astros in the AL West with less than two weeks remaining in the regular season.
“He is putting together an unprecedented season that is about as well-rounded as you can imagine,” an NL executive said. “While both are part of a team surging toward a playoff spot, it feels like Raleigh is right in the middle of everything they are doing at the moment.”
“The easy answer would be Judge because his overall production is a notch above, per WAR,” said an AL executive. “However, you put Raleigh in Yankee Stadium for half of his games and he would have about 64 home runs. And he’s a catcher.”
Had Judge not suffered his injury, his play in right field might have made defense a non-issue. Judge’s Statcast numbers in right field put him in the top 25 percent at his position, and had he played 140-plus games in the outfield, the defense vs. DH argument may have been moot.
“Judge is an excellent right fielder, but he’s going to wind up at DH for more than a third of the season,” an AL exec said. “Raleigh’s power production, combined with his work on defense, could be enough to push him past Judge – especially if he hits 60 home runs.”
Raleigh’s .948 OPS entering Thursday was 226 points above the AL average (.722), while Judge’s 1.132 OPS is 184 points above Raleigh and a staggering 410 points above league average.
“It is a question of whether 200ish points of OPS makes up for the defensive difference,” an AL executive said. “I think it does.”
Just as Judge received national recognition for breaking Maris’ AL home run record in 2022, Raleigh has been making headlines this week after breaking Mantle’s switch-hitting home run record and tying Ken Griffey Jr. for the Mariners’ single-season mark.
“This really is a tough call and a credit to Raleigh that he has actually ‘caught up’ to Judge over the course of the second half,” an NL executive said. “The Judge injury needs to be considered as well. It’s tough to vote for someone who isn't at their own 100 percent, although that in and of itself is a testament to how good he is. Also, if Judge had 54 home runs at this point, he would be deemed the unanimous choice already.”
If Seattle can close out the season with an AL West title and finish with more victories than Judge’s Yankees, those factors could help sway the final vote, as well. Raleigh leading the Mariners to their first division title since 2001 would be a major story, potentially propelling him past Judge, whose Yankees appear destined for a Wild Card berth.
“Raleigh has been incredible,” an NL executive said. “He’s been the most consistent and has the narrative.”
Entering Thursday, Judge held a .383/.545/.723 slash line with five home runs in 15 games this month, while Raleigh had a .305/.423/.661 line and six home runs in the same number of games. Whoever ultimately wins the award, they will have earned it with a finish as strong as the rest of their season.
“Judge is on another level,” said an AL executive who went with Raleigh. “I just think the competitive advantage of a catcher producing at that elite level is so big. Plus, he’s a great defender and he catches maybe the best stuff in the game.”
One AL executive couldn’t choose between Judge and Raleigh, calling it an “impossible task” to pick one over the other.
“Both are beasts and very impactful to their teams,” the exec said. “If they had these type of years but not in the same year, both would be unanimous. Both should be rewarded. Most Valuable Players this year instead of Most Valuable Player. Simply add the ‘s’ on the end.”
Judge is seeking his third MVP Award in the past four seasons, leading some to speculate that voters could compare his year to his previous MVP campaigns – each of which saw him eclipse the 10-WAR mark – rather than focusing on his competition.
“We need to be careful not to penalize him as a result of voter fatigue,” an NL executive said. “Judge continues to perform as the best and most valuable player in the AL. Where would the Yankees be without him? The same could be said of Raleigh, of course. Both are very deserving.”