CHICAGO – Christian Yelich knows exactly the first question he’ll hear from reporters when the visitors' clubhouse doors open on Monday ahead of a five-game, four-day series between the Brewers and Cubs. For weeks, observers of the National League Central have had this one circled on the calendar.
“How are you guys this good?”
“Like, just go ahead and say it,” Yelich says with a laugh. “You don’t think we’re good.”
He’s not mad about it. There’s no reason to be mad these days, not with the Brewers riding the best heater in franchise history – 53 wins in their last 69 games and 29 wins in their last 34 games even after a franchise-record 14-game winning streak came to an end on Sunday.
“I get it,” Yelich said. “You pull up our starting lineup – if you don’t watch us all the time, you don’t understand it. We don’t mind.”
What they have is a combination of the most basic fundamentals. They pitch (third-best ERA in the Majors). They play good defense (second-most outs above average). And they generate runs by swinging at strikes (second-lowest chase rate), getting on base (second-best OBP) and then making life difficult for the opponent (second in stolen bases and first in baserunning run value, per Statcast).
“They’re a good team,” Cubs outfielder Ian Happ said. “They play fundamental baseball. They run the bases well. They play defense well. They pitch it. So for us, we have to go out and play our game and be really sound and fundamental.”
It has added up to baseball’s best overall record, best home record (tied with the Blue Jays), best road record and best run differential, and new storylines ahead of this highly anticipated series, which begins with a split doubleheader on Monday. The Cubs had a season-high 6 1/2-game lead atop the division on June 18, when that day’s game against the Brewers was rained out at Wrigley Field. The Cubs had 79.9 percent odds to win the division per FanGraphs’ modeling at that point. The Brewers, four games over .500 at the time, had 8.3 percent odds of winning the division and were a long shot to even make the playoffs at 29.8 percent.
Since the rainout, Milwaukee is 39-10 and Chicago is 25-25.
Going into Sunday’s games, the Brewers’ odds of winning the division had improved to 95 percent and the Cubs were at 5 percent to win the division and 97.5 percent to make the playoffs.
“The job is to try to win the division – that’s kind of the ultimate goal,” Cubs manager Craig Counsell said. “From our perspective, yeah, they’re making that part of the goal really hard to get to. We only get 13 chances to affect it.”
Still, there are chances remaining.
“We sit right here with an incredible opportunity,” Counsell said. “We’ve got it, kind of, in our hands. Now, we’re going to have to earn it. No doubt.”
“Brewers are hot,” said Cubs All-Star outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong, who insisted he’s not worried about the Cubs’ slide in the standings. “No, the Cubbies are the Cubbies. We’re going to go keep playing the same baseball we’ve played all year. It’s been an interesting two weeks, but we’re fine. I don’t think there’s any worry in the world.”
The same goes for the Brewers, who know the good vibes can change fast if they don’t stay focused.
“It feels like the season’s winding down, but it’s really not,” Yelich said. “There’s really a lot of time left and a lot can happen. Look what we did [in 2018 when they caught the Cubs to win the division]. We’ve seen that a lot can change in six weeks.”
Here’s what you need to know going into the series:
How have the teams fared against each other so far?
It matters because head-to-head results represent the first tiebreaker to determine postseason position in the event of a tie at the end of the regular season. The Cubs and Brewers have split their first eight games, so the winner of this five-game series will win the season series.
What are the typical starting lineups?
Brewers
- Sal Frelick, RF
- Isaac Collins, LF
- William Contreras, C
- Christian Yelich, DH
- Andrew Vaughn, 1B
- Caleb Durbin, 3B
- Brice Turang, 2B
- Blake Perkins, CF
- Joey Ortiz, SS
How hot have the Brewers been? Their franchise-record winning streak began the day they placed 21-year-old budding star Jackson Chourio on the IL with a right hamstring strain. They broke that club mark over the weekend despite being further compromised by the absences of NL Rookie of the Year Award candidate Collins (paternity list) and 2024 NL Gold Glove Award finalist Perkins (bereavement list). Perkins returned for Sunday’s series finale in Cincinnati and Collins was expected to be activated for Monday’s doubleheader.
Cubs
- Michael Busch, 1B
- Kyle Tucker, RF
- Seiya Suzuki, DH
- Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF
- Carson Kelly, C
- Ian Happ, LF
- Nico Hoerner, 2B
- Dansby Swanson, SS
- Matt Shaw, 3B
Counsell has mixed things up a little bit and will use Hoerner in the leadoff spot at times against lefty pitching. Super utility man Willi Castro is also available to fill in at multiple spots, while backup catcher Reese McGuire also sees action. Veteran Justin Turner usually slots in against left-handers. The Cubs boasted one of the best offenses in the first half (5.3 runs/game and .771 OPS), but have labored since the break (3.8 runs/game and .681 OPS).
How are the rotations set up for the series?
Brewers: The Brewers have Opening Day starter and MLB wins leader Freddy Peralta (14-5, 2.90 ERA) lined up to face the Cubs for the 23rd time in his career in Game 1 of Monday’s doubleheader. Game 2 figures to be right-hander Chad Patrick called up from Triple-A Nashville, who is quite a Minor League stash considering he has a 3.52 ERA in 19 games (18 starts) in the Majors this season and was in the NL Rookie of the Year conversation before being optioned in July to make room for Brandon Woodruff’s return from the injured list.
After that, the Brewers have Woodruff, rookie All-Star Jacob Misiorowski and Quinn Priester starting the rest of the series.
Cubs: As things stand, rookie Cade Horton is set to take the ball for the Cubs in the opener of Monday’s twin bill. The righty has logged a 1.13 ERA in his past seven outings, helping Chicago post MLB’s best rotation ERA (3.02) in the second half. Jameson Taillon (15-day IL) is poised to be activated to start during the series – potentially as early as Monday. While the rest has not been revealed by Counsell, the Cubs’ rotation would project to feature lefty Matthew Boyd, righty Colin Rea and lefty Shota Imanaga over the rest of the series.
How do the bullpens line up after the starters?
Brewers: Friday started a stretch of 19 games over 18 days for the Brewers, who have leaned on their bullpen a lot this season. Closer Trevor Megill broke into the big leagues with the Cubs in 2021 but blossomed into an All-Star with the Brewers after perfecting a knuckle curve to pair with his fastball. He has a 0.92 ERA over his last 19 appearances. Left-handers Jared Koenig and right-handers Abner Uribe and Nick Mears are the primary setup men along with Milwaukee’s most notable addition at the Trade Deadline, Shelby Miller. He was closing games for the D-backs before being sidelined by a right forearm injury in early July.
Cubs: The Cubs’ bullpen has undergone a few changes since Opening Day, but Counsell has found ways to get the most out of an evolving cast. Overall, the group has a 3.81 ERA through Sunday (ranked fourth in the NL). Hard-throwing Daniel Palencia has stepped up as the closer, while righty Brad Keller and lefty Caleb Thielbar often serve as the main setup options. Chicago also acquired righty Andrew Kittredge and lefty Taylor Rogers at the Deadline. Ben Brown, who was in the rotation, now gives Counsell a length option out of the relief corps.
Any injuries of note?
Brewers: Chourio is the big one, but he was said to be making good progress back in Milwaukee this weekend and is on track to begin a rehab assignment soon. The Brewers are also without first baseman Rhys Hoskins (left thumb), but Vaughn has more than filled that gap. On the pitching side, the Brewers suffered a notable blow on Saturday when they placed left-handed reliever DL Hall on the IL with a right oblique injury. Hall would have played a prominent role in this series because of his ability to deliver multiple innings.
Cubs: Taillon has been sidelined since July 1 due to a right calf strain, but he is ready to rejoin Chicago’s rotation this week. Catcher Miguel Amaya is on the 10-day IL due to a left ankle sprain and righty Michael Soroka (acquired at the Deadline) is on the 15-day IL and working his way back from a right shoulder strain. Lefty Justin Steele is out for the season after needing left elbow surgery in April.
Who’s hot? Who’s not?
Brewers: The Brewers are 7-0 with Woodruff on the mound and have won Priester’s last 14 starts dating to his final outing of May. … Vaughn is hitting .327 with nine homers, 35 RBIs and a 1.002 OPS in 31 games since being called up to the Brewers in the first week of July.
Cubs: Horton has gone 4-0 with a 0.32 ERA in his last five outings. … Shaw has been on a roll since the break, hitting .307 with a 1.058 OPS in 26 games. Eight of his 10 homers have been in the second half. … Suzuki (.193 average and .616 OPS), Tucker (.190 average and .596 OPS) and Busch (.163 average and .565 OPS) have been cold since the break.