NEW YORK -- Even with a stretch of success against the Mets, the Braves are nearing the end of an important 13-game stretch without any clear indication of how the rest of this season might unfold.
“We dug a big hole for ourselves,” Braves manager Brian Snitker said. “That was of our own making. But we’re fighting like heck right now to get out of it.”
There has been recent optimism for the Braves, who exited Tuesday having won 10 of their past 14 games, including five straight against the Mets within this stretch. But just when it looks like they might get on a roll, they squander opportunities like the one that was presented Thursday night at Citi Field.
Instead of taking advantage of Mets starter Griffin Canning exiting in the third with an Achilles injury, the Braves totaled three hits in a 4-0 loss. Atlanta will enter Friday’s three-game series against the Phillies six games under .500 and seven games back in the battle for the third and final NL Wild Card spot.
Before going 6-4 over these past 10 games against the Mets and Marlins, the Braves were eight games under .500 and 7 1/2 games back in the Wild Card race.
In other words, not much was gained from last week’s series sweep of the Mets in Atlanta or by taking the first two games of this week’s four-game set in New York. In between, the Braves lost two of three in Miami and learned Chris Sale will likely be out until August with a fractured left rib cage.
“We needed to go 7-0 against [the Mets] quite honestly,” Snitker said. “We’re tying to catch people. We need to win every series we play.”
But can they win without Sale?
When Sale suffered his fractured rib cage during an 8 2/3-inning masterpiece against the Mets on June 18, he was making a serious run at a second straight Cy Young Award, and Atlanta owned MLB’s fourth-best starting pitching ERA (3.14) going back to May 1.
Now he’s been replaced by a 20-year-old Didier Fuentes, who made six starts above the High-A level before making his unexpected MLB debut last week.
Spencer Strider is looking more like himself and Spencer Schwellenbach led MLB in innings pitched after his most recent start. Grant Holmes, who allowed two runs over five innings on Thursday, and Bryce Elder are solid back-of-the rotation options.
But as Fuentes allowed the Mets six runs over 3 1/3 innings on Wednesday, he showed there might have been something to the 4.98 ERA he constructed in five starts with Double-A Columbus. Snitker’s indication the young hurler will likely make another start further highlights the absence of starting pitching depth that exists, with Sale, Reynaldo López and AJ Smith-Shawver all sidelined.
Can they win with this offense?
Matt Olson’s two-out single in the ninth accounted for the last of the two hits surrendered by the Mets bullpen over 6 1/3 innings. Nights like this happen. You just hope they don’t happen less than two weeks after being limited to one run in a game started by Austin Gomber, who followed this season debut by allowing the D-backs nine runs over 4 2/3 innings.
There are too many below average hitters in Atlanta’s lineup. Entering Thursday, there were 299 players who had compiled at least 130 plate appearances (Ronald Acuña Jr. entered with 132). Acuña led this group with 224 Weighted Runs Created Plus. Drake Baldwin (136 wRC+) ranked 35th and Olson (135) 38th. These three rank among the game’s top 15 percent in terms of offensive production and Marcell Ozuna (123) ranks among the top 25th percentile.
Austin Riley (110) and Sean Murphy (108) rank among the top 45 percent. With Murphy and Baldwin playing the same position, the Braves lineup usually includes five players who provide above average production.
Each of the Braves’ other regulars rank among the bottom 25 percent in production: Eli White (80 wRC+), Ozzie Albies (76), Alex Verdugo (69), Nick Allen (64) and Michael Harris II (53). Harris ranked 291 out of 299.
Can history really repeat itself?
The Braves won the 2021 World Series after carrying a losing record into August. And they won the NL East after trailing the Mets by seven games as late as Aug. 10, 2022.
Snitker’s teams tend to finish strong. With the possibility he will retire at the end of this year, it might not be wise to assume that magic won’t reappear one more time.
“I don’t ever get any indication that anybody is ready to cash this thing in yet,” Snitker said. “We’ve got a lot of baseball left to play and there’s a lot of baseball to do a lot of good.”