This story was excerpted from Mark Bowman’s Braves Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
ATLANTA -- Will the Braves be buyers or sellers before the July 31 Trade Deadline? We may not know this answer for another few weeks. But we’ll have a better idea by the end of this month.
The Braves have won four of six since enduring their second seven-game losing streak of the season. They fumbled a chance to sweep the Rockies and will now be challenged by the Mets and Phillies in 10 of their final 13 games of June.
Winning the National League East seems unlikely, as the Braves sit 13 games behind the first-place Mets. Erasing the 10 1/2 games that separate them from the second-place Phillies will be challenging enough. But with 92 games remaining, there’s still hope to erase the eight-game deficit that separates Atlanta from the final Wild Card spot.
The Padres, who currently sit in the third and final Wild Card spot, are on pace for 89 wins. The Braves need to go 59-33 the rest of the way to reach 90 wins. They had similar such stretches during both the 2022 and 2023 seasons.
What’s the best 92-game stretch in franchise history? The Braves went 65-27 immediately after entering June of 2022 four games below .500 (23-27). Some recency bias might have you feeling like this year has felt far worse than that ’22 season. But things seemed pretty bleak three years ago before Spencer Strider moved to the rotation and Michael Harris II was brought up from Double-A.
Coincidentally, this year’s turnaround could also be influenced by Strider, who looked more like himself while notching 13 strikeouts over six scoreless innings against the Rockies on Saturday. Yeah, he was facing one of the worst teams MLB has ever seen. But his fastball velo was up, and his slider was consistently nasty. He’ll just continue to get better as he distances himself from elbow surgery.
Here is what is on my mind as the Braves prep for this important stretch:
1. Had Chris Sale stayed on schedule, he would have faced the Rockies on Sunday, the Marlins next weekend and the Phillies the following weekend. By moving him from Sunday to Wednesday, he’ll now start in both of the upcoming series against the Mets and in the Phillies series. Having your best face teams other than the Rockies and Marlins is always a sound choice.
2. Remember when Ronald Acuña Jr. returned a few weeks ago, and I predicted he would hit 25 homers, despite missing most of the season’s first two months? Can I have a mulligan? Acuña hit seven homers in the 77 at-bats he totaled through his first 21 games. If he maintains this same pace over the season’s final 92 games, he’ll end up with 39 home runs. Safe to say 25 homers wasn’t really a bold prediction.
3. If Saturday was a turning point, the Braves would be considered a postseason favorite if they entered the playoffs with Sale, Strider and Spencer Schwellenbach all healthy. This has obviously been the issue over the past few years in Atlanta. They entered the 2022 NLDS with Strider and Max Fried both ailing. They entered the 2023 NLDS without Charlie Morton, and Sale wasn’t available during last year’s short postseason experience.
4. So while there are concerns about the offense and bullpen, my greatest current concern is the starting pitching depth. In Spring Training every year, we hear, “We’re going to need them all.” Well, the Braves have used nearly all of their starting-pitching options. The losses of Reynaldo López and AJ Smith-Shawver have left Hurston Waldrep and Ian Anderson as their top internal options.
5. It looks like Dylan Lee is going to get some closing chances as the Braves work to get Raisel Iglesias right. Iglesias has had two consecutive scoreless appearances since being removed from the closer’s role. The team needs him to continue this success, because he is the only legit closer currently in that bullpen mix.
6. If the Braves end up being sellers, Iglesias and Pierce Johnson would certainly draw interest on what is always a bullpen-hungry trade market. But the Braves’ biggest return would come from moving Marcell Ozuna, who is in the final year of his contract. Ozuna says his right hip hasn’t been an issue over the past few weeks. This might lead to improved production, which would increase the likelihood of the Braves being buyers.