This story was excerpted from Mark Bowman's Braves Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
PHILADELPHIA -- Many of you are hoping the Braves upgrade offensively at the shortstop spot this winter. But this week, we’re focused on whether starting pitching should be a priority in the offseason.
Projected 2026 rotation: Chris Sale, Spencer Strider, Spencer Schwellenbach, Reynaldo López, Hurston Waldrep
Potential rotation depth pieces: Bryce Elder, Joey Wentz, Grant Holmes, No. 2 prospect JR Ritchie (not before the All-Star break in my opinion)
Sale: As long as he gets through his final five starts without any issues, he can head into the offseason focused on nothing but normal offseason preparations. Even with two months missed, he’ll likely throw 120-plus innings this year. He threw just 102 2/3 innings in 2023 and then tallied 177 2/3 innings in his 2024 National League Cy Young Award-winning season.
Strider: History has shown things tend to normalize during that second year removed from right elbow surgery. Betting on Strider becoming a frontline starter again next year doesn’t feel like much of a gamble.
Schwellenbach: Expectations are for Schwellenbach to have no limitations at the start of Spring Training. With his fractured right elbow healed, he’s throwing with the hope of working off the mound before this season ends. This would give him some peace of mind as he heads into the offseason. The 25-year-old hurler threw 110 2/3 innings this year and had the desire to reach 200 innings before being injured in late June. He showed durability last year, totaling 168 2/3 innings between the Minors and Majors combined. That was 103 2/3 more than he’d totaled in what had been his only previous professional season.
López: The 2024 All-Star has said he wants to be a starter. I’m among those of you who see the value of pairing López with a healthy Joe Jiménez in the bullpen and erasing the need to assume the cost of adding a closer. But just because he’d be throwing an inning at a time doesn’t mean this is the better route for his surgically repaired right shoulder. Pitching multiple days at max effort might have more of an impact than throwing once every five days at the successful pace he had last season.
Waldrep: When I got to the Tri-Cities Airport after the Speedway Classic a few weeks ago, John Smoltz said, “That kid pitched really well,” as we chit-chatted before boarding our flight. Smoltz’s first impression was likely the same one many of you had when introduced to Waldrep’s six-pitch mix. Yeah, we have to be mindful that he’s had just one month of success. But the mound presence and stuff look legit. When debating how much rotation depth is needed, it seems important to note he’ll likely end up throwing 140-150 innings between Triple-A and the Majors this year. That’s not an alarming increase after totaling 100 1/3 innings during his first full professional season last year.
Elder: Having had the chance to spend most of this season in the Majors should prove beneficial in future seasons. Keeping the sinker down consistently will be even more beneficial.
Wentz: Unlike Elder, Wentz doesn’t have any Minor League options remaining. So, if viewing him as a depth piece for 2026, you have to make room for him to be in the rotation or bullpen in the second half.
Holmes: While Holmes is hoping to avoid right elbow surgery, the odds seem to be stacked against him. If it works, great. But as the Braves plan for 2026, they can’t assume he’ll be part of the rotation or bullpen for an extended period.
Ritchie: The 22-year-old hurler has had a phenomenal year. But when you account for the fact that he pitched with training wheels as he returned from Tommy John surgery in 2024, this is really his first full professional season. It’s great that he’s tasted success at the Triple-A level. But he would benefit from another half-season in the Minors before being viewed as an option in Atlanta.
Throughout last year’s offseason, we stressed the need to add a starting pitcher because Sale, Schwellenbach and López had all exceeded expectations from a durability standpoint in 2024. Had the Braves added a starter, it might not have mattered, given how many starters ended up on the injured list.
Regardless, this year was another reminder that you can never have enough pitching. So, maybe the Braves should pursue a budget-friendly one-year deal with someone like Charlie Morton.
Look at that, we’re right back where we were at the start of the last offseason.