With four weeks to go until the Trade Deadline, we’re no closer to figuring out who the buyers and sellers will be than we were a month ago.
All but a handful of teams across baseball are still firmly within striking distance of a postseason spot, so what happens over the next three weeks or so will go a long way in determining who buys and who sells by July 31.
This week, MLB.com will look at a number of questions to consider as we approach the month-long run to July 31, starting with the American League.
Are the Orioles the key to the Trade Deadline?
There is no team raising more eyebrows around the league than the Orioles, who are desperately trying to stay in the postseason picture after their disappointing 16-34 start.
Baltimore remains on the outskirts of the AL Wild Card race, and if the Orioles can trim a few more games off that deficit, general manager Mike Elias could shift into buyer mode in an attempt to return to the playoffs for a third straight season. If things go the other way, Elias could inject a ton of rental talent into the marketplace, giving Baltimore an opportunity to do a soft reset around its core of heralded young position players.
Among those players on expiring contracts are starting pitchers Zach Eflin, Tomoyuki Sugano and Charlie Morton; infielder/outfielder Ryan O’Hearn; center fielders Cedric Mullins and Ramon Laureano; and relievers Gregory Soto and Seranthony Dominguez.
The White Sox and Athletics are the only two sure-fire sellers in the AL; what do they have to sell?
The Athletics have locked up Brent Rooker and Lawrence Butler to long-term deals, while Luis Severino and Jeffrey Springs are under control through 2027.
Of that group, Severino might be the most intriguing for contenders. The 31-year-old right-hander has been superb on the road (2-2, 3.23 ERA in eight starts) while struggling mightily in Sacramento (0-7, 6.79 ERA in 10 starts). He has two years and $47 million remaining on his contract, but given the cost of starting pitching, that contract might not be difficult to move.
Miguel Andujar and Luis Urías, both of whom are headed for free agency at the end of the season, could also draw interest.
The White Sox could find a taker for Luis Robert Jr., though he’s performed poorly over the past two seasons, unable to follow up on his All-Star 2023 campaign. Robert, who has a pair of $20 million club options for 2026 and 2027, is also dealing with a minor hamstring issue, which could further complicate his trade value.
Chicago’s other potential trade chips include relievers Cam Booser and Steven Wilson, and starters Aaron Civale, Adrian Houser and Davis Martin.
Will the Red Sox buy or sell?
Boston got trade season started with its June 15 blockbuster that sent Rafael Devers -- and his massive contract -- to San Francisco for Kyle Harrison, Jordan Hicks, James Tibbs III and Jose Bello.
Now what?
The Red Sox have enough payroll flexibility to make some additions before the Trade Deadline, and while they’re hanging around the Wild Card race despite a record lingering around .500, there are some who believe Boston could become a seller if they don’t play better in July.
Should the Red Sox sell, some intriguing names could enter the fray, most notably Jarren Duran, Aroldis Chapman, Walker Buehler and perhaps Alex Bregman, though that seems like an extreme longshot. Chapman and Buehler are set to become free agents at the end of the season, while Bregman can opt out of the final two years of his contract and test the open market for a second straight year. The more likely scenario, sources say, is that Boston would try to restructure Bregman’s contract into a longer deal.
Duran hasn’t been able to replicate his breakout 2024 season, and with a young group of outfielders that includes Roman Anthony, Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela -- and more on the way with Tibbs and Jhostynxon Garcia knocking on the door -- Boston could try to move Duran to address other areas of need for 2026 and beyond.
What is the Yankees' biggest need?
The Yankees lead the AL in OPS and trail only the Tigers in runs, so the initial answer would seem to be pitching. Yet New York's team ERA ranks near the top of the league, Luke Weaver is back from the injured list and they should have the services of reigning AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil for the second half of the season.
Third base has been an issue for the Yankees all season, especially since Oswaldo Cabrera suffered a season-ending injury in mid-May. New York’s third basemen rank near the bottom of the league in most offensive categories, and that’s with Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s solid numbers during his time at the hot corner.
Adding a third baseman such as Colorado’s Ryan McMahon, Arizona’s Eugenio Suárez or Yoán Moncada of the Angels would bolster the Yankees’ already impressive lineup. New York could also look for a marginal upgrade in the infield with somebody such as Andujar or Luis Rengifo.
What should the Tigers’ top priority be?
One of the few teams with less production at third base than the Yankees is the Tigers, whose third basemen have posted a league-worst OPS around .600 for the season.
The Tigers’ offense has been one of the most productive in the league this season, making third base one of the few key holes to address during the next month. Jace Jung could be made available if Detroit adds a third baseman.
Detroit will also likely look to bolster its bullpen, while president of baseball operations Scott Harris could also try to add a controllable starting pitcher -- Sandy Alcantara, perhaps?
What will the surging Rays do?
Last year, the Rays took an opportunistic approach to the Deadline, capitalizing on a seller’s market by shipping out key parts of a middling team. But they’ve shown a willingness to be aggressive when they’re in position to win the division, understanding the importance of a first-round bye in the postseason, and they’re suddenly in such a position.
The Rays have been the best team in MLB since May 20 (26-11), and they’re in second place in the AL East, only one and a half games behind the Yankees. They could still deal from their deep pitching staff, but the question now is where might they add?
They’ve played complete baseball for more than a month now, with few obvious flaws, and reinforcements are on the way in the form of shortstop Ha-Seong Kim and ace left-hander Shane McClanahan. They might get creative, and few front offices do so better than the Rays.
Are the Blue Jays ready to go all-in?
Although Toronto settled the potential Vladimir Guerrero Jr. soap opera with his massive contract extension, the Blue Jays still have a short window to win with their current group. Bo Bichette, Chris Bassitt, Max Scherzer and Chad Green will all be free agents at the end of the season, while Kevin Gausman, George Springer and Daulton Varsho are each under control for one more year.
The Blue Jays are firmly in the mix in both the AL East and Wild Card races, and after a disappointing 2024 season that saw them win just 74 games, the idea of making some big moves to give them a chance in an uninspiring American League makes sense.
Left field seems like the most obvious area for the Blue Jays to upgrade, though adding a controllable starter could be the top priority given the free-agent situations listed above.
Can the Mariners land a big bat?
Seattle picked the wrong year to search for an impact bat at the Trade Deadline. Unlike recent years (think Manny Machado in 2018, Trea Turner in 2021 or Juan Soto in 2023), this summer’s market is extremely thin on sluggers, so finding a hitter to pair with Cal Raleigh in the middle of the lineup will be challenging.
First base and third base are the two spots that make the most sense for Seattle, and while there are some bubble teams that could make a corner infielder or two available -- O’Hearn, Arizona’s Suárez and/or Josh Naylor -- it’s far from certain that those clubs will become sellers any time soon.
Will the Royals be buyers for a second straight year?
Pitching has carried Kansas City this season, though after a strong start, the Royals faltered in June, leaving them with a double-digit deficit in the AL Central while hanging in the Wild Card race.
The lineup has been a problem all season; the Royals rank near the bottom in most offensive categories, with Bobby Witt Jr., Maikel Garcia and Vinnie Pasquantino representing the only regulars with an OPS+ above league average.
Kansas City has a wealth of catching depth in its system, with four prospects (No. 2 Blake Mitchell, No. 3 Carter Jensen, No. 10 Ramon Ramirez and No. 29 Hyungchan Um) all ranked in its Top 30 according to MLB Pipeline. The Royals have a $13.5 million option on Salvador Perez for 2026, but even if he departs after next season, there is plenty of young catching talent for them to use in a deal.
A year ago, general manager J.J. Picollo acquired Michael Lorenzen, Lucas Erceg, Paul DeJong and Hunter Harvey in advance of the Deadline, bolstering a roster that wound up making the playoffs. If the Royals can find a bat or two to help their unproductive lineup, they could pull the trigger in an effort to return to October, though their play over the next few weeks will determine whether the Royals buy or sell by the end of the month.
Do the Astros have enough offense?
Houston’s offense has lingered around the middle of the AL rankings all season, and while the Astros sit atop the AL West, the lineup could use a boost for the stretch run.
With Jose Altuve set to remain in the outfield, they could use an upgrade at second base, where they rank near the bottom in most offensive categories. Christian Walker has also struggled in his first season with Houston, so adding a left-handed bat to complement him at first base could be an option.
Getting Yordan Alvarez back from the injured list -- especially with Jeremy Peña now out with a rib fracture -- would certainly provide a jolt to the offense, but Houston would be best served by finding a bat to add somewhere into its lineup if the Astros have designs on making a deep postseason run.