This article was contributed by BetMGM. For more sports betting insights, check out BetMGM.com.
After leading the league in home runs last season, New York Yankees slugger Aaron Judge remains the betting favorite to be this year’s home run king via the latest odds at the BetMGM online sportsbook.
As of Thursday, Judge is -110 to lead MLB in home runs during the 2025 campaign. That gives him an implied probability of 52.38% at this point in the season and is much more favorable than his AL MVP odds price of -10000.
Judge currently ranks second in the Majors with 25 home runs on the year, trailing Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh by one homer. Judge finished as MLB’s home run king last year with 58 homers and in 2022 with 62.
That’s why Judge entered the year as a +260 preseason favorite to lead MLB in home runs via BetMGM’s futures market. He was also the preseason favorite in 2024 (+375) and 2023 (+550).
However, Judge could face more competition than the initial market suggested.
Shohei Ohtani, who was +500 in the preseason, remains Judge’s biggest threat in the betting market. He now has +200 odds to lead the Majors in home runs. Ohtani currently ranks third with 23 home runs after pacing the National League with 54 last year.
Raleigh is +250 as the current home run leader after being a 100/1 long shot before the season. Raleigh, who slugged a career-best 34 homers last season, could become the first catcher to lead the Majors in home runs since Salvador Perez accomplished the feat in 2021 (tied with Vladimir Guerrero Jr.).
As the only other player with more than 20 home runs this season, Philadelphia Phillies designated hitter Kyle Schwarber is +1000 with 21 home runs. He started with the third-best odds at +1100 in the spring.
No other player is better than 40/1 to lead the Majors in home runs this year.
ZiPS, a projection system available at FanGraphs, currently projects Judge to lead all hitters with 29 more home runs across the rest of the season. Ohtani is projected for 27 over the next 88 games, while Schwarber is forecasted for 23 over his next 87. Raleigh is expected to cool off with 21 homers over his final 82 contests.
Home run leader odds:
- Aaron Judge -110
- Shohei Ohtani +200
- Cal Raleigh +250
- Kyle Schwarber +1000
- Pete Alonso +4000
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