This article was contributed by BetMGM. For more sports betting insights, check out BetMGM.com.
Less than one month into the 2025 MLB season, New York Yankees star Aaron Judge has a commanding lead in the American League MVP race.
Judge is -450 to repeat as AL MVP at the BetMGM online sportsbook, giving him an implied probability of 81.82% to win a third such trophy. Judge entered the year as a +300 favorite, but he was trading at minus odds after hitting four home runs during the season's Opening Weekend.
While it might seem early for this level of odds adjustment, Judge has been the best hitter in the sport this year.
Judge leads the Majors in WAR (2.1), batting average (.415), on-base percentage (.513), slugging percentage (.734) and hits (39). He also paces the AL in runs (23), RBIs (26) and total bases (69).
If this all sounds familiar, it’s because it is. In 2024, Judge led all of baseball in home runs (58), RBI (144), on-base percentage (.458), slugging percentage (.701), OPS (1.159) and walks (133). He was a minus-odds favorite to win AL MVP for much of the year.
Like last season, Kansas City Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. appears to be Judge’s primary challenger. Witt is +500 to win AL MVP after entering the year with a +300 price tag. No other player is better than 20/1.
AL MVP favorites at BetMGM:
- Aaron Judge -450
- Bobby Witt Jr. +500
- Gunnar Henderson +2000
- Mike Trout +2500
The National League MVP race, on the other hand, is much more competitive. After winning the award last year, Los Angeles Dodgers star Shohei Ohtani remains the betting favorite (+220), but he’s not alone at the top of the board.
Chicago Cubs outfielder Kyle Tucker (+300), San Diego Padres outfielder Fernando Tatis Jr. (+400), Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Corbin Carroll (+400) and New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso (+800) are all not far behind.
They all have a solid case this early in the season. Tucker paces MLB in runs with 25, while Tatis is first in the NL in WAR at 2.0. Carroll has hit an MLB-high-tying nine home runs. Alonso is second in the sport with 26 RBIs.
Thanks to their hot start, all these players have seen their MVP odds shorten in the past month. Tatis was +850 before the season, followed by Tucker (+1600), Carroll (+3000) and Alonso (+5000).
It’s still Ohtani’s award to lose, but he figures to face plenty of competition this year.
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