Over the past 10 years, Trade Deadline week has featured deals involving some of the game’s best players.
Juan Soto to the Padres in 2022. Max Scherzer and Trea Turner to the Dodgers in 2021. Manny Machado to the Dodgers in 2018. Yoenis Céspedes to the Mets in 2015. David Price to the Tigers in 2014 … then again to the Blue Jays a year later.
This year’s crop of trade candidates may not have the same cachet as those superstars, but the players expected to move this week will impact the pennant races over the next two months.
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“It seems quiet so far,” a National League executive said. “Lots of discussions, but I’m not sure that big names move.”
“There is no huge fish who is definitely getting traded,” an American League executive said. “But the whole point of a surprise is that it comes as a surprise, so …”
As recently as Sunday, one AL executive said both sellers and buyers alike were being “unreasonable” with their asks and offers, which is why there have only been a smattering of deals to this point.
“It seems like there are extreme relief pitching prices and a lot of ‘eye-of-the-beholder’ bats,” an NL executive said. “There’s plenty of back-end starting pitching, but not as much impact. [Monday] will be a big day for the bubble teams deciding what they’re doing.”
As has been the case since the league instituted a third Wild Card spot in each league, the muddled postseason picture has left a number of clubs stuck in the middle. They’re close enough to a playoff spot to warrant buying or even standing pat, though they know that a bad week can drop them to a place in the standings where selling might be the best course of action.
One team executives from potential sellers are keeping their eye on is the Yankees, who have already addressed one of their needs through the trade with the Rockies for third baseman Ryan McMahon.
New York held a seven-game lead in the AL East on May 28, but the Yankees entered Monday with a 22-28 record over their past 50 games entering Monday, leaving them 5 1/2 games behind the first-place Blue Jays.
This week, the Yankees placed reigning AL MVP – and this year’s frontrunner for the award – Aaron Judge on the injured list with a flexor strain in his right elbow, an injury that will likely limit him to designated hitter duties whenever he is able to return.
With some uncertainty about Judge’s status, will GM Brian Cashman get aggressive to bolster the rest of his roster? The Yankees are believed to be looking for bullpen help and possibly another starting pitcher, but if Judge misses any significant time, where will New York find itself in the postseason picture when he comes back?
“They are in a tricky spot,” an NL executive said. “A big part of this has to come down to how long Judge is going to actually be out of commission.”
The Yankees are also in a division considered one of the most interesting to watch this week, as the Blue Jays, Red Sox and even the Rays are potential buyers. New York held the first AL Wild Card spot as of Monday, while Boston occupied the second. Despite losing 18 of its previous 25 games, Tampa Bay entered the week only three games out of the final Wild Card spot.
The other intriguing division is the NL Central, with the Brewers, Cubs and Reds all expected to be buyers. Chicago and Milwaukee entered the week tied for first place (and the top Wild Card spot), while Cincinnati was only one game out of a Wild Card spot.
“I think a lot of this week depends on how aggressive the AL East and NL Central want to be, in general,” an NL executive said. “There appear to be several buyers in those divisions, and a number of teams believe they can win their respective divisions. Additionally, there are some sellers in those divisions as well, and depending on how they view their future, those clubs could make things interesting.”
The most notable position players likely to move include Eugenio Suárez (whose price tag to this point has been “exorbitant,” according to one executive, before the third baseman was hit on the hand by a pitch on Monday), Ryan O’Hearn, Luis Robert Jr., Marcell Ozuna and Cedric Mullins, though the last three are having below-average seasons at the plate.
The list of available starters is topped by Dylan Cease and a pair of aces having off years (Zac Gallen, Sandy Alcantara), while the rest reads like a who’s who of mid-rotation arms including Merrill Kelly, Mitch Keller, Edward Cabrera, Charlie Morton, Jeffrey Springs, Luis Severino, Nestor Cortes, Tyler Anderson, Tomoyuki Sugano, Andrew Heaney, Zack Littell, Adrian Houser and Zach Eflin.
Then there’s the crop of available relievers, which is typically the busiest market of all leading up to the Deadline. Controllable relievers including Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, Pete Fairbanks, Mason Miller and David Bednar won’t come cheap, though rental relief arms such as Ryan Helsley, Kyle Finnegan, Raisel Iglesias, Seranthony Domínguez, Danny Coulombe and Phil Maton can likely be had at more digestible prices.
“At this point it seems unlikely that many controllable pieces move,” an AL executive said. “Lots of sellers are expecting to compete in the next year or two, so the asks are high for near-Major League or present-Major League help.”
“I’m generally expecting a lot of activity, but probably more on the small- to medium-scale of trades,” an NL executive said. “I’m not expecting any real top players to move.”