This article was contributed by BetMGM. For more sports betting insights, check out BetMGM.com.
Ahead of the final weekend of May, all six division favorites are -110 or better to win their grouping via the latest odds at the BetMGM online sportsbook. That means six teams have better than a 52.38% implied probability of winning their division at this point in the season.
It might seem too early in the 2025 season to price six teams better than a coin flip of winning their division, but it’s worth taking a look at each situation to have a better understanding of the market entering the summer.
The New York Yankees are the biggest division favorites, trading at -900 odds to win the American League East. That gives them a 90% implied probability, which is in line with FanGraphs’ projection of 91.8% as of May 29.
New York leads the division by seven games after winning the AL East last year. BetMGM is still rooting against the Boston Red Sox (+1300), who are the most significant liability in this division race after receiving 43% of the bets.
The Los Angeles Dodgers are -650 (86.67% implied probability) to win the National League West division for the 12th time in the last 13 years. They only have a two-game lead on the San Diego Padres (+800), but FanGraphs projects an 86.2% chance they will hold them off.
Both central division front-runners have -375 odds for an implied probability of 78.95%.
The Detroit Tigers lead the AL Central by six games, and FanGraphs gives them a 70.4% chance of claiming their first division crown since 2014. The Cubs have a 72.1% chance with a three-game advantage over the St. Louis Cardinals.
In a competitive NL East race, the Philadelphia Phillies lead by two games and have -140 odds (58.33%). They have received 43.7% of the handle in this division race, but the New York Mets (+140) remain in the mix.
As for the AL West, the Seattle Mariners find themselves 0.5 games up on the Houston Astros. FanGraphs projects a 46.7% chance of Seattle winning the division for the first time since 2001, while Houston has a 46% projection to maintain its reign with an eighth AL West title in nine years.
The latest betting odds expect this to be the most competitive race, listing the Mariners at -110 and the Astros at +145. Seattle led the AL West until mid-summer last year before Houston ultimately claimed the top spot.
MLB division favorites:
- AL East: Yankees (-900)
- AL Central: Tigers (-375)
- AL West: Mariners (-110)
- NL East: Phillies (-140)
- NL Central: Cubs (-375)
- NL West: Dodgers (-650)
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