The Astros found themselves with an unprecedented advantage in the 2015 Draft. Because they failed to sign No. 1 overall pick Brady Aiken the year before, they received the No. 2 choice as compensation. And after posting the fourth-worst MLB record in 2014, they also garnered the No. 5 selection.
No team before or since has ever owned two of the first five picks in a single Draft. And Houston made the most of them.
The Astros parlayed those two choices into the two best players in the entire Draft: Alex Bregman at No. 2 and Kyle Tucker at No. 5. Bregman showed up at Minute Maid Park just a year later and Houston made the playoffs in each of his eight full seasons in Houston, winning two World Series and four American League pennants. Tucker arrived in 2018 and also became an integral part of, by far, the most successful run in franchise history.
In our annual redraft of the event that took place 10 years ago, based on careers to date and future projections, the Astros and Cardinals tied for the most retroactive first-rounders with four apiece. Houston also hit on its first two selections on the Draft's third day, 11th-rounder Patrick Sandoval and 12th-rounder Myles Straw. St. Louis didn't get much out of its top three picks but scored with its next four: Harrison Bader (third round), Jordan Hicks (supplemental third), Paul DeJong (fourth) and Ryan Helsley (fifth).
More from MLB Pipeline:
• Top 100 prospects | Stats | Video | Podcast | Complete coverage
All told, 15 of the 36 real-life first-rounders from 2015 maintained that status in the redraft. The Rangers found the two biggest bargains with a pair of college seniors, Appalachian State's Jeffrey Springs for $1,000 in the 30th round and Central Florida's Dylan Moore for $10,000 in the seventh. The latest selection to make our updated first round was Ty France, a Padres 34th-rounder out of San Diego State.
1. Diamondbacks: Alex Bregman, SS, Louisiana State
Actual pick: Dansby Swanson, SS, Vanderbilt ($6.5 million). Bregman: first round, No. 2, Astros ($5.9 million).
Bregman starred for three seasons at LSU and was arguably the best pure hitter in the college class, regularly drawing comparisons to Dustin Pedroia because of his size, tools and makeup. There were some mild questions about if he'd have more than average power (he would) or if he could play shortstop in the Majors (which became moot because the Astros had Carlos Correa). He quickly asserted himself as baseball's best prospect before Houston called him up 13 months after he went second overall -- behind his friend and former U.S. collegiate national team double-play partner Swanson, which rankled him nonetheless. Bregman won two World Series, a Gold Glove and a Silver Slugger while making two All-Star teams with the Astros before signing with the Red Sox as a free agent last offseason.
There were persistent rumors that the Diamondbacks were going to cut a hugely discounted deal at No. 1 with someone like Georgia prep catcher Tyler Stephenson, but they ultimately took the consensus top college talent in Swanson. Arizona signed him for $2.1 million under slot but oddly pocketed almost all of the savings, then stunned the industry by including him in a trade with the Braves for Shelby Miller five months later. Swanson became almost exactly the high-floor player scouts expected, swapping a bit of hitting ability for some extra power while becoming a two-time All-Star and Gold Glover.
2. Astros: Kyle Tucker, OF, Plant HS, Tampa, Fla.
Actual pick: Bregman ($5.9 million). Tucker: first round, No. 5, Astros ($4 million).
The younger brother of then-Astros outfielder Preston Tucker, Kyle offered the best combination of hitting ability and power potential in the high school crop and has lived up to that assessment. He didn't crack Houston's lineup on a full-time basis until 2020 but has played in the past three All-Star Games and been one of the best players in the National League this season following his December trade to the Cubs.
Signing Tucker for $1.5 million under slot allowed the Astros to give an identical $4 million bonus to supplemental first-rounder and fellow prep outfielder Daz Cameron, who ranked one spot ahead of Tucker (No. 6 vs. No. 7) on MLB Pipeline's Draft Top 200. While Cameron never panned out, he was a key part of the 2017 Justin Verlander trade with the Tigers, which led to two World Series titles.
3. Rockies: Austin Riley, 3B, DeSoto Central HS, Southhaven, Miss.
Actual pick: Brendan Rodgers, SS, Lake Mary (Fla.) HS ($5.5 million). Riley: supplemental first round, Braves ($1.6 million).
Teams preferred Riley as a pitcher until his stuff leveled off as a Mississippi high school senior, and most rated him as a third-round talent as a hitter. The Braves liked his bat more than that, correctly projecting that he'd develop into a slugger who could play a competent third base. A two-time All-Star and Silver Slugger recipient, he has finished in the top 10 in the NL MVP voting in each of his three full and healthy seasons.
MLB Pipeline's top-rated prospect, Rodgers showed the potential for solid or better tools across the board with a nice blend of physical ability and polished skills. The Rockies debated between him and Illinois left-hander Tyler Jay, and while they made the right call, Rodgers never reached his ceiling. He battled injuries, didn't become a regular until 2021 and never has done much offensively, though he did win a Gold Glove in 2022.
4. Rangers: Dansby Swanson, SS, Vanderbilt
Actual pick: Dillon Tate, RHP, UC Santa Barbara ($4.2 million). Swanson: first round, No. 1, Diamondbacks ($5.9 million).
Tate didn't make UC Santa Barbara's rotation until his third college season yet became the first pitcher selected, wowing scouts with a mid-90s fastball and an upper-80s slider back when few pitchers had that combination. But he quickly wore out his welcome with the Rangers, who included him in a three-prospect package shipped to the Yankees for Carlos Beltrán at the 2016 Trade Deadline. Tate had trouble staying healthy, became a full-time reliever in 2019 and found some middling success with the Orioles.
5. Astros: Ian Happ, OF, Cincinnati
Actual pick: Tucker ($4 million). Happ: first round, No. 9, Cubs ($3 million).
The Cubs coveted Andrew Benintendi at No. 9 but were forced to settle for Happ, who rated as the top position prospect in the Cape Cod League during each of his two summers in college. He has become a steady big league performer, batting around .250 with 20 homers most years and winning the last three NL Gold Gloves in left field.
6. Twins: Cedric Mullins, OF, Campbell
Actual pick: Tyler Jay, LHP, Illinois ($3,889,500). Mullins, 13th round, Orioles ($100,000).
Mullins flew under the radar because he was a 5-foot-8 outfielder who hit four homers as a junior at Campbell after spending two seasons at Louisburg (N.C.) JC. The 403rd overall pick in the 2013 Draft, he has been a fixture in center field for the Orioles for the past six seasons and recorded the first 30/30 season in their history in 2021.
Like Tate a dominant reliever on the 2014 U.S. collegiate national team, Jay stayed in the bullpen as a junior and still went sixth overall. The Twins tried to develop him as a starter but that didn't work, and he had trouble staying healthy and maintaining what had been legitimate first-round stuff. He finally reached the big leagues in 2024, pitching in five games with the Mets and Brewers.
7. Red Sox: Brandon Lowe, 2B, Maryland
Actual pick: Andrew Benintendi, OF, Arkansas ($3,590,400). Lowe: third round, Rays ($697,500).
Maryland (Lowe, LaMonte Wade) and Vanderbilt (Swanson, Walker Buehler) are the only two schools with two retro first-rounders. While the Commodores tied a Draft record with three first-rounders (those two and Carson Fulmer), Lowe went in the third round and Wade in the ninth. Scouts considered Lowe a polished hitter with ordinary athletic ability, a report that has mostly held true other than he has sold out for more power in the Majors.
After hitting just one homer as an Arkansas freshman in 2014, Benintendi led NCAA Division I with 20 as a sophomore and won the Golden Spikes Award. He made a strong debut with the Red Sox at the end of 2016, ranked as the game's best prospect entering 2017 and played a key role in Boston's 2018 World Series championship. But his production dropped off precipitously afterward, outside of a brief revival with the Royals in 2021-22.
8. White Sox: Ke'Bryan Hayes, 3B, Concordia Lutheran HS, Tomball, Texas
Actual pick: Carson Fulmer, RHP, Vanderbilt ($3,470,600). Hayes: first round, No. 32, Pirates ($1,855,000).
Hayes boosted his stock as a senior, displaying advanced hitting ability, average power potential and improved defense at third base. He matured into a solid hitter and a Gold Glover at the hot corner, though his pop has yet to materialize as hoped.
Fulmer rated as MLB Pipeline's top-rated pitching prospect in the 2015 Draft after helping Vanderbilt win the 2014 College World Series and finish runner-up as an encore. He paired a mid-90s fastball with a power curveball, though his up-tempo delivery led to worries that he'd be better suited for the bullpen. That ultimately proved correct and he has bounced around the Majors with five teams over eight seasons.
9. Cubs: Ryan Mountcastle, SS, Hagerty HS, Oviedo, Fla.
Actual pick: Happ ($3 million). Mountcastle: first round, No. 36, Orioles ($1.3 million).
Though most clubs evaluated Mountcastle as a third-round talent, the Orioles spent the final pick of the first round on his offensive upside even though they knew he wouldn't stick at shortstop. That decision paid off with 86 homers in his first four full big league seasons while he has settled in at first base.
10. Phillies: Jake Cronenworth, 2B, Michigan
Actual pick: Cornelius Randolph, SS, Griffin (Ga.) HS ($3,231,300). Cronenworth: seventh round, Rays ($198,900).
We ranked Cronenworth at No. 164 on our Draft Top 200 -- as a right-hander with an 88-94 mph fastball and the best splitter in the Draft. The Rays popped him in the seventh round and made the Michigan two-way player a full-time infielder, though he did dabble with pitching at Triple-A. Good call, because he finished second in the 2020 NL Rookie of the Year balloting and made a couple of All-Star teams after a trade to the Padres.
If the Astros hadn't taken Tucker at No. 5, he probably would have gotten to No. 10 and become a Phillie. Instead, Philadelphia opted for another highly regarded prep bat in Randolph. He slashed .251/.340/.373 in seven Minor League seasons, had defensive limitations as well and became the highest selection in the 2015 Draft to fall short of the Majors.
11. Reds: Andrew Benintendi, OF, Arkansas
Actual pick: Tyler Stephenson, C, Kennesaw (Ga.) Mountain HS ($3,141,600). Benintendi: first round, No. 7, Red Sox ($3,590,400).
12. Marlins: Walker Buehler, RHP, Vanderbilt
Actual pick: Josh Naylor, 1B, St. Joan of Arc SS, Mississauga, Ont. ($2.2 million). Buehler, first round, No. 24, Dodgers ($1,777,500).
13. Rays: Harrison Bader, OF, Florida
Actual pick: Garrett Whitley, OF, Niskayuna (N.Y.) HS ($2,959,600). Bader, third round, Cardinals ($400,000).
14. Braves: Trent Grisham, OF, Richland HS, North Richland Hills, Texas
Actual pick: Kolby Allard, LHP, San Clemente (Calif.) HS ($3,042,400). Grisham: first round, No. 15, Brewers ($2.7 million).
15. Brewers: Ryan Helsley, RHP, Northeastern State (Okla.)
Actual pick: Grisham ($2.7 million). Helsley: fifth round, Cardinals ($225,000).
16. Yankees: Josh Naylor, 1B, St. Joan of Arc SS, Mississauga, Ont.
Actual pick: James Kaprielian, RHP, UCLA ($2,650,000). Naylor: first round, No. 12, Marlins ($2.2 million).
17. Indians: Paul DeJong, 3B, Illinois State
Actual pick: Brady Aiken, LHP, IMG Academy, Bradenton, Fla. ($2,513,280). DeJong: fourth round, Cardinals ($200,000).
18. Giants: Tyler Stephenson, C, Kennesaw (Ga.) Mountain HS
Actual pick: Phil Bickford, RHP, JC of Southern Nevada ($2,333,800). Stephenson: first round, No. 11, Reds ($3,141,600).
19. Pirates: Dylan Moore, SS, Central Florida
Actual pick: Kevin Newman, SS, Arizona ($2,175,000). Moore: seventh round, Rangers ($10,000).
20. Athletics: Taylor Ward, C, Fresno State
Actual pick: Richie Martin, SS, Florida ($1,950,000). Ward: first round, No. 26, Angels ($1,670,000).
21. Royals: Jeffrey Springs, LHP, Appalachian State
Actual pick: Ashe Russell, RHP, Cathedral Catholic HS, Indianapolis ($2,190,200). Springs: 30th round, Rangers ($1,000).
22. Tigers: LaMonte Wade Jr., OF, Maryland
Actual pick: Beau Burrows, RHP, Weatherford (Texas) HS ($2,154,200). Wade: ninth round, Twins ($163,800).
23. Cardinals: Alexis Díaz, RHP, Maunez HS, Naguabo, P.R.
Actual pick: Nick Plummer, OF, Rice HS, Bloomfield Hills, Mich. ($2,124,400). Diaz: 12th round, Reds ($130,000).
24. Dodgers: Brendan Rodgers, SS, Lake Mary (Fla.) HS
Actual pick: Buehler ($1,777,500). Rodgers: first round, No. 3, Rockies ($5.5 million).
25. Orioles: Myles Straw, OF, St. Johns River State (Fla.) JC
Actual pick: D.J. Stewart, OF, Florida State ($2,064,500). Straw: 12th round, Astros ($100,000).
26. Angels: Ty France, 3B, San Diego State
Actual pick: Ward ($1,670,000). France: 34th round, Padres ($100,000).
27. Rockies: A.J. Minter, LHP, Texas A&M
Actual pick: Mike Nikorak, RHP, Stroudsburg (Pa.) HS ($2.3 million). Minter: supplemental second round, Braves ($814,300).
28. Braves: Pete Fairbanks, RHP, Missousi
Actual pick: Michael Soroka, RHP, Bishop Carroll HS, Calgary, Alb. ($1,974,700). Fairbanks: ninth round, Rangers ($100,000).
29. Blue Jays: Kevin Newman, SS, Arizona
Actual pick: Jon Harris, RHP, Missouri State ($1,944,800). Newman: first round, No. 19, Pirates ($2,175,000).
30. Yankees: David Fletcher, SS, Loyola Marymount
Actual pick: Kyle Holder, SS, San Diego ($1.8 million). Fletcher: sixth round, Angels ($406,900).
31. Giants: Patrick Sandoval, LHP, Mission Viejo (Calif.) HS
Actual pick: Chris Shaw, 1B, Boston College ($1.4 million). Sandoval: 11th round, Astros ($900,000).
32. Pirates: Evan Phillips, RHP, UNC Wilmington
Actual pick: Hayes ($1,855,000). Phillips: 17th round, Braves ($100,000).
33. Royals: Jordan Hicks, RHP, Cypress Creek HS, Houston
Actual pick: Nolan Watson, RHP, Lawrence North HS, Indianapolis ($1,825,200). Hicks: supplemental third round, Cardinals ($600,000).
34. Tigers: Michael Soroka, RHP, Bishop Carroll HS, Calgary, Alb.
Actual pick: Christin Stewart, OF, Tennessee ($1,795,100). Soroka: first round, No. 28, Braves ($1,974,700).
35. Dodgers: Triston McKenzie, RHP, Royal Palm Beach (Fla.) HS
Actual pick: Kyle Funkhouser, RHP, Louisville (did not sign). McKenzie: supplemental first round, Indians ($2,302,500).
36. Orioles: Bryan Hudson, LHP, Alton (Ill.) HS
Actual pick: Mountcastle ($1.3 million). Hudson: third round, Cubs ($1.1 million).