Sixteen days until the Draft ... so you know what the main focus of the Pipeline Inbox will be.
MLB Pipeline's own Jesse Borek with a fine question! We answer a similar query every year after the Draft, but this is the first time it has been posed beforehand. Adding to the degree of difficulty, we obviously don't know who teams will select yet.
For the purposes of this exercise, we're considering that prospects on track to graduate from rookie status before the Draft signing deadline (July 28) will do so. For example, Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer will come off of our Red Sox Top 30 and Jac Caglianone will leave our Royals list.
Let's start with the top five picks:
- Nationals: Travis Sykora is establishing himself as one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, but whomever Washington selects will be its No. 1 guy, likely Louisiana State left-hander Kade Anderson or Oklahoma high school shortstop Ethan Holliday.
- Angels: Anderson would rank ahead of Christian Moore, who graduates on the day of the deadline, but not before. Moore would remain No. 1 over Tennessee lefty Liam Doyle or the several high school shortstops attached to this pick (more on that in a moment).
- Mariners: Colt Emerson will remain on top.
- Rockies: I'd lean incumbent Charlie Condon over Ethan Holliday, and Condon would be an easier call against anyone else Colorado might select.
- Cardinals: JJ Wetherholt will stick at No. 1.
The only team picking from 6-10 that might Draft their new No. 1 prospect is the Blue Jays, though it's not a lock that they'll grab someone better than Arjun Nimmala. Whomever the Athletics take at No. 11 probably will move ahead of Gage Jump, but that might be it. While I'm a fan of Royals catchers Blake Mitchell and Carter Jensen, Oregon prep lefty Kruz Schoolcraft's ceiling could make him Kansas City's best prospect if he's the No. 23 choice.
The Angels clearly have a type in the first round. In the last five years, they have spent their top picks on collegians who either raced to the big leagues (Reid Detmers, Zach Neto, Nolan Schanuel, Moore) or would have if not for injury setbacks (Sam Bachman, who still arrived in Anaheim 22 months after he was drafted). They seem zeroed in on college southpaws Anderson and Doyle at No. 2 -- yet a number of high school shortstops get mentioned there as well.
It remains to be seen if the Angels would pull the trigger on Eli Willits, JoJo Parker or Daniel Pierce, but there appears to be real interest. Willits might be the best all-around player in the Draft if he grows into more power, while Parker is the best all-around offensive player in the prep class and Pierce has a broad base of tools. The Angels theoretically would get a significant discount off their $10,252,700 assigned pick value if they took any of the three.
In our last solo first-round projections, both Jonathan Mayo and myself had the Padres taking Neyens at No. 25. In our joint effort in between at the Draft Combine, we forecast the Astros taking him at No. 21.
A product of Mount Vernon (Wash.) HS, Neyens offers some of the best high school power in the Draft and is more athletic than most 6-foot-4, 210-pounders. He does come with some swing-and-miss concerns but he also fits the third-base profile very well and has a huge ceiling.
San Diego targets high school talent and unless Schoolcraft drops to No. 25, that feels like Neyens' floor. The Rangers at No. 12 look like the ceiling, though they'll probably have better options to choose from. Beside the Astros, also keep an eye on the Orioles (No. 19) and Tigers (No. 24).
What is Brewers shortstop Luis Peña’s ceiling as a prospect? His tools seem very good and legit, but does he have the same ceiling as a guy like Leo De Vries? -- Garrett P., Killen, Ala.
Peña gets overshadowed in his own farm system by another shortstop from the Brewers' 2024 international class, Jesús Made, but he's a Top 100 Prospect in his own right. He actually has outperformed Made at both of their Minor League stops, winning the Rookie-level Dominican Summer League batting title (.393) in his pro debut and slashing .316/.374/.500 with 20 extra-base hits and 32 steals in 50 Single-A games this year at age 18.
Peña has an All-Star ceiling, as he could develop into a plus hitter with plus-plus speed who's capable of playing an average shortstop. He doesn't have as much upside as De Vries, the Padres standout who could succeed Anthony as the No. 1 prospect in baseball, or Made, because they have much more power potential. Both De Vries and Made could have 30-homer pop, while Peña is more likely to provide 15-20 per season.