What to expect from Reds top prospect Burns in the big leagues

While Chase Burns was considered to be among the top arms in the 2024 Draft class, one with premium athleticism and power stuff, there was a question mark hanging over him as a pitching prospect that made some teams pause.

His fastball.

I know what you’re thinking: How is that possible? The dude throws 100 mph like it’s playing catch. But while some of the concerns came from the usual extreme nitpicking when you’re considering taking a guy in the top five or 10 picks, those unsure about the right-hander pointed to one thing in particular about the heater, despite its elite-level velocity.

It got hit.

The Reds' No. 1 prospect (MLB No. 11) had moved from Tennessee to Wake Forest for the school’s famed pitching lab, and there were certainly a lot of improvements to point to between his sophomore and junior seasons -- drops in ERA, WHIP, hit rate, walk rate and batting average against and a jump in strikeout rate. All of those indicators are reasons why the Reds took him No. 2 overall in the end.

But the fastball had some issues, even though it topped out at 101 mph. And while the overall miss rate improved from 2023 to 2024, it was coming from his straight over-the-top delivery so hitters could pick it up. Opponents hit .286 with a .983 OPS against it last year, according to Synergy. Lefties couldn’t wait to see it, hitting .323 with a 1.127 OPS.

Perhaps all of this was much ado about nothing, as Burns has buzzed through the Minor Leagues and is set to make his big league debut in Cincinnati against the Yankees. But in looking at what to expect from the 22-year-old right-hander, it’s worth peeking under the heater hood once again.

He’s throwing it as hard as ever, averaging 97.2 mph and reaching triple-digits. But while it’s not missing as many bats as it did last year in college (22 percent miss rate vs. 36 percent in 2024), it’s not being squared up in the same way. Hitters have managed just a .205 average and .622 OPS against the pitch during his first full pro season. Lefties, who previously feasted, haven’t fared much better (.216 and .658).

He hasn’t altered his delivery or his arm slot much. There doesn’t appear to be that much more run or life on the pitch, though he is continually working on that part of his execution. And perhaps he’s commanding the pitch a bit better in the zone. But the real difference maker might be his changeup.

He still isn’t throwing it a ton, though his usage of the pitch has ticked up a bit this year compared to last. But it’s the effectiveness of it that stands out. It’s always been firm -- Burns doesn’t throw anything soft -- averaging right around 90 mph, and it had shown flashes of being a potential out pitch, especially against left-handed hitters, with a ton of fade. But in 2024, college hitters hit .308 off his cambio and lefties compiled a .320 average against his offspeed offering.

This year, it’s been a real weapon. Lefties have hit just .176 against it as he’s moved through the levels (he hasn’t used it against right-handed hitters). As firm as it is, the differential from the heater, along with that fade, has led to a lot of uncomfortable swings from left-handers this season. And because he sells it well, with similar arm speed, those hitters haven’t been able to tee off on the fastball in the same way. If he can keep committing to throwing it when staring at Major League hitters from the left side of the plate, he should help neutralize them and keep them off his fastball more.

We’ve long known about the breaking stuff. His upper-80s slider gets a 70 grade, and maybe that’s light. He commands it well and was eliciting a gaudy 51-percent miss rate in the Minors this year. He doesn’t throw his slower low-80s curve much, but it is an effective bat-misser.

Burns has always been a very good strike-thrower, and that’s continued, maybe even better than anyone expected (1.8 BB/9, 68 percent overall strike rate). He is terrific at staying within himself, even as he’s gotten more comfortable and showing more animation and emotion on the mound, so the situation shouldn’t be too big for him. When I spoke to him in Spring Training, he clearly had his eyes on Cincy at some point this year.

And he and the Reds have done a terrific job getting him ready for the rigors of being in a big league rotation. Burns once had a long, rigorous pre-game routine that served him well with pitching once a week in college. He’s adjusted that in pro ball, and the Reds have provided a nice on-ramp -- starting him on that once-a-week college schedule out of the gate this year, then slowly shortening the rest as he moved up the ladder, even getting him some opportunities to pitch twice in one week.

They’ve been trying to stretch him out to 90 pitches before calling him up, but he’s just been too efficient. Twice in his last three starts he went seven full innings, with 80 pitches in one and 88 in the other. His workload will be monitored -- the 100 innings he pitched at Wake last year are a career high and he’s already at 66 this season. But his ability to throw four potentially plus pitches for strikes bodes well, with all signs pointing to him pitching at the top of a rotation in the future.