What to expect from Royals No. 2 prospect Jensen in the big leagues

Futures Game batting practice is as closely watched as you’ll ever see a round of BP. Prospects representing all 30 farm systems, playing for Minor League teams in all four corners of the country (and Vancouver) get to show in front of scouts, former Major Leaguers, media members and each other what they can do at the plate in an MLB setting.

This year in Atlanta’s Truist Park, Carter Jensen put on an absolute laser show. The left-handed slugger regularly pelted balls toward, or even over, the Chop House beyond the right-field fence, hitting 10 homers in total. A challenge from the Hall of Famer serving as American League hitting coach may have served as motivation.

"Fred [McGriff] said as I was going up there, ‘You have any pop?’ I was like, ‘I got pop,’” Jensen told MLB.com’s Anne Rogers. “He said, ‘Let me see.’ So I had to show him.’”

Now, the Royals’ No. 2 prospect will get to show off that signature slugging ability in MLB ballparks for a much longer stretch.

Kansas City is calling up Jensen as part of September roster expansion on Monday, the club announced Sunday. It will be his first promotion to The Show for the 2021 third-rounder, whose Park Hill High School is roughly 20 miles northwest of Kauffman Stadium -- where the Royals begin a three-game series against the Angels on Tuesday.

Ranked as the No. 69 overall prospect on MLB Pipeline’s Top 100, Jensen has set a career high with 20 homers over 111 games between Double-A Northwest Arkansas and Triple-A Omaha this season. That ranks tied for fourth-most among primary catchers in the Minor Leagues, trailing only veterans Carlos Pérez and Luis Campusano and fellow Top 100 talent Samuel Basallo -- each with 23.

But as good as Jensen’s been overall this season, he’s saved his absolute best for the Minors’ top level. Since debuting with Omaha on June 24, Jensen ranks third in Triple-A in homers (14), second in slugging percentage (.647), third in OPS (1.051) and sixth in total extra-base hits (26).

Now Omaha is a homer-friendly destination, and that is certainly backed up by Jensen’s home-road splits in the International League. While his 14 homers are evenly distributed between the two scenarios, he’s hit .404/.534/.877 in 73 plate appearances at home, compared to .219/.318/.510 in 111 PA on the road. That could be something to consider out of the gate as Jensen transitions to Kauffman Stadium, which ranks last in the Majors in HR factor for left-handed hitters with a 72 (100 is considered average and San Francisco’s Oracle Park ranks 29th at 78).

That said, Jensen’s underlying data proves that this Triple-A slugfest was no mere product of home cooking alone. His 59.4 percent hard-hit rate ranks second-best among 346 Triple-A batters who have seen at least 750 pitches at the level this season. That trails only No. 13 overall prospect Bryce Eldridge’s 61.2 percent mark. Jensen also ranks highly in average exit velocity (94.0, fourth), expected slugging percentage (.525, 10th) and xwOBA (.385, seventh).

Jensen has played into his plus raw power consistently thanks to a strong and selective approach at the plate, limiting chase as is typical for someone who tracks pitches for a living. His biggest Kryptonites have been curveballs and changeups, two pitches against which he has whiff rates above 35 percent at Triple-A. Major League pitchers who have done their homework might focus on softer stuff below the zone to limit the Royals rookie’s pop.

Defensively, Jensen has proven durable over his four full Minor League seasons in the KC system, a rarity for the position. Royals officials have routinely praised his improvements in framing as he’s built up his workload and could be an average backstop in time. He has above-average arm strength with pop times as low as 1.81 seconds in Triple-A, but his caught-stealing rate with Omaha was just 15 percent, his lowest mark at a level since the Arizona Complex League in 2021.

With Blake Mitchell also in the system, it’s long been a debate in the prospect community around who could take over for Salvador Perez long-term in KC. Freddy Fermin’s trade to San Diego at the Deadline opened an avenue for Jensen, if he could maintain his power production deeper into the Triple-A season, and he’s taken advantage.

So yeah, he has pop. Now it’s Jensen’s chance to show everyone else what the Crime Dog now knows.