Is Rangers top prospect Walcott the next big thing?

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SAN ANTONIO -- Sebastian Walcott reckons he first reached six feet tall around 12 years old.

That might be a little easier for him to remember than many others at Double-A, considering that was only seven years ago. In fact, the Rangers' top prospect (MLB No. 9) is one of only two 19-year-olds to qualify for the batting title in Double-A this season (Angels outfielder Nelson Rada being the other).

Around four years earlier than that, the Nassau, Bahamas native -- who has since grown to 6-foot-4 and might not be done as he heads toward his 20s -- was already tracking down as many highlights of Manny Machado as he could. When he got home from school, when he had a few minutes before a game, whenever he could sneak them in really.

“On TV, everyone else looks kind of small,” Walcott said. “But he just looks bigger than everybody else.”

The Frisco shortstop says he still mirrors his game off the Padres third baseman, particularly when it comes to the one-hand finish on his swing (“just trying to stay through the baseball”), and the defense that has put two Gold Gloves on his mantle. It’s a fine self-comp, considering Machado was also a Top 10 overall prospect who reached Double-A in his age-19 season. Other evaluators believe Walcott has some Fernando Tatis Jr. in him as a right-handed batter with plus-plus raw power, an equally good arm and a potential future in right field. Then again, Walcott is in the same organization as Corey Seager, another former Top 10 prospect who scouts were convinced would move off shortstop. Instead, he’s made only four of 1,001 career MLB defensive starts somewhere other than the six.

In other words, there are paths laid out ahead for Walcott as he continues to grow into his body and fulfill his own potential in the Texas farm system.

Entering Tuesday, the right-handed slugger has a .244/.345/.404 slash line with eight homers and 16 doubles in his first 65 games this season. That’s solidly above-average but not quite tearing down the competition as one might expect for such a prominently ranked prospect, but it’s good for a 113 wRC+, still making him above-average by Texas League standards. It’s also the 11th-best wRC+ put up by a player aged 19 or younger at Double-A since 2006 (min. 250 plate appearances), placing him right between Machado (118) and Giancarlo Stanton and Jackson Chourio (both 110) on that list.

Walcott isn’t done developing as the Texas League turns toward its second half either, and he has one skill in mind as the summer wears on.

“I’d probably say shrinking my zone, forcing pitchers to come into my zone and not chasing,” he said. “That’s the goal they want me to do. They want me to chase, get me off my A swing and try to strike me out. But I’m trying to shrink my zone and force pitchers to come to my zone.”

Per Synergy, the teenager has in fact cut his chase rate from 29 percent at High-A Hickory and Frisco in 2024 to 26 percent entering this week back with the RoughRiders. MLB average is around 28 percent this season.

In particular, he’s cut down on fishing for breaking balls (chase rate down from 37 percent to 28) and changeups (from 34 to 21). He’s struck out 21.5 percent of the time when the Texas League average K% is 23.8.

Continually improving the swing decisions will go a long way towards allowing Walcott to get into that immense pop and improve his performance across the board.

But it isn’t just swinging at pitches inside the zone; it’s swinging at more drivable pitches. Perhaps the biggest drag on Walcott’s overall slash line right now is a 32.3 percent infield fly ball rate (percentage of fly balls that stay on the infield), i.e. almost a third of his flyballs are popups and eminently catchable. Getting balls more squarely during his A swings will be huge for Walcott in the second half and beyond.

The work in the box, however, is only part of the equation for the Bahamian. He’s still improving his defensive consistency at shortstop, specifically his footwork. As a non-roster invite this spring, Walcott sought out Seager’s advice on how to remain up the middle in this Age of the Tall Shortstop.

“Everything he said made perfect sense,” Walcott said. “Try to stay low to the ground, stay in your legs and everything will take care of itself.”

Walcott’s size -- he’s an inch taller than Seager’s listed height of 6-foot-3 -- and rocket of an arm may still portend a future move to third base, like Machado made as a rookie in 2012. Others believe he’d make a natural transition from short to right field, like Tatis made in his age-24 season in 2023. Wherever he lands long-term -- and the Rangers needn’t rush him off short just yet -- Walcott has the offensive potential and trendlines to become a star at the top level.

Sooner rather than later, some kids back in Nassau might run home to watch Walcott next.

“I think that’s everybody’s goal [in the Bahamas] -- trying to make the big leagues,” he said. “We had the talent to be in professional baseball, but it takes a different type of talent to be in the big leagues and stay in the big leagues.”