Reddit AMA: Which Bucs will be in play at Trade Deadline?
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On Wednesday, Pirates beat reporter Alex Stumpf conducted an AMA (ask me anything) on Reddit. You can read the full transcript here. Here are some highlights, edited lightly for clarity and brevity:
Do you think the Pirates will actually trade significant pieces like [Mitch] Keller or [Bailey] Falter at the Trade Deadline this year? If so, what type of return could we be expecting for those type of players?
The best I can say right now is the Pirates will listen. Both have years of control -- and of course are good pitchers -- so there's no rush to deal either of them, but this team obviously has a lot of pitching and not enough hitting, so if someone makes a good offer, they have to consider it. They could also make a deal like that this offseason.
If they were to be traded, I would speculate getting a quality Major League hitter (or MLB ready prospect) would be part of the deal. Someone who could help the team immediately. Both are on pace for 2-3 WAR seasons, so they should theoretically be able to get someone who can make an impact.
Who’s realistically on the trade block? Who are the long shots?
Barring a hot streak that gets the Pirates into the playoff picture, the only guy I'm very confident will be dealt is Andrew Heaney. He's a good pitcher and a good dude, but he's on an expiring contract. Easy pickup for a contender looking for someone who can make a postseason start.
They're going to get calls on [David] Bednar and [Dennis] Santana. Both have a year of control so they don't have to make a move, but you have to listen. Same goes for guys like Keller, [Joey] Bart and Falter. Other guys on expiring deals should be dangled -- [Adam] Frazier, [Tommy] Pham, [Ryan] Borucki -- but you can make the case that having veterans down the stretch adds more to a club than a fringe prospect does.
And just to state the obvious, [Paul] Skenes isn't going anywhere.
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How are the Pirates feeling about [No. 2 prospect] Konnor Griffin and his development? Do you think we could see him in Double-A this season? And if so, when?
They're feeling really good. Leading up to the Draft last year, I tried to kick the tires on if they were going to take a college bat, someone who could maybe come up to the Majors sooner. I had that shut down pretty universally that they're going to draft the best player on their board over need, before eventually gathering they really liked one high school player. Obviously we figured out who that was.
I think there's a good chance he'll finish the season in [Double-A] Altoona if he continues to hit in [High-A] Greensboro like he did in [Single-A] Bradenton. Don't think it's going to happen anytime soon, but they're willing to push this kid and there are some great hitting resources in Altoona that would be great to get him in front of before the year wraps. It would probably help if someone like Jebb/Brannigan/Johnson are promoted too to create some playing time (not to insinuate that he's being blocked by anyone, of course).
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Why are we always pulling Falter on a semi-low pitch count. Even when he's pitching well?
100 isn't a magic number for everyone. We've seen Skenes go past that looking strong, we've seen other guys get to the 70s and tire out.
It always comes down to the pitcher and the game circumstance. Sometimes it's as simple as determining if it's better to push a pitcher now or ease off the gas a bit in hopes that they'll finish the year stronger. If you got 80 mostly good pitches out of someone, why push him for 20 more if they're gonna be worse?
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What have you thought of Oneil Cruz's development through the years? Is he about what we expected or is there more on the table with him?
I think Cruz has taken some big steps, but is still a work in progress with more room to grow. The guy works hard and wants to be great, and we've seen areas where he has taken big steps forward. He's in the top 10 in walk rate. He could be a 30/50 player. He's greatly improved against left-handers over the last year. If I can plug a recent newsletter, he's improved in the field.
There's still more growth to be done. The whiffs and K’s need to improve. Cruz has taken a step forward producing ideal swing angles, but he's still only league average-ish in that regard. I agree with Cutch [Andrew McCutchen] that Cruz really doesn't have a ceiling, and I think we're going to continue to see him get better.