Final MVP poll: AL race incredibly tight heading into final week

There is so much to be decided in the final week of the regular season. One of the biggest must-watch items on the docket: What will Aaron Judge and Cal Raleigh do in their closing arguments for American League Most Valuable Player?

While MLB.com's latest MVP poll shows Shohei Ohtani continuing to hold a comfortable advantage in the National League, the race in the AL almost literally can't get any closer. After 40 of our experts cast their votes, the Yankees' captain and the Mariners' slugging catcher were separated by only two points.

Voters ranked their top five picks in each league on a 5-4-3-2-1 scale -- five points for a first-place vote, four points for a second-place vote and so on. Votes were based not just on performances to date, but also on how things are expected to go over the final few games remaining. Here are the poll results.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

1. Aaron Judge, Yankees (21 first-place votes)

The choice between Judge and Raleigh is a real toss-up, even among league executives. Judge moves back into the No. 1 spot by a very narrow margin after falling to No. 2 in August. He has six homers in his past 14 games and needs just one more long ball for his fourth 50-homer season. Judge is also in line to lead the Majors in on-base percentage (.451), slugging percentage (.672) and FanGraphs WAR (9.2) for the third time in four years. His .326 average is the best in the bigs, meaning the 6-foot-7 Judge could become the tallest batting champion in MLB history.

2. Cal Raleigh, Mariners (19 first-place votes)

Raleigh made an impact in the Mariners' biggest series of the year this past weekend. He homered twice during Seattle's road sweep against the Astros, putting the Mariners in a commanding spot to earn their first division title since 2001. Raleigh, with five dingers in his previous seven games, is up to a franchise-record 58 home runs this year. He could become the seventh player and first catcher to reach the 60-homer plateau -- and he would achieve it while playing for a likely division winner. It's an easy case to make for MVP.

3. José Ramírez, Guardians

The Guardians, 11 games out of the AL Central entering Sept. 5, are just a single game behind the faltering Tigers heading into a massive three-game showdown in Cleveland that begins Tuesday. The Guardians have gone 15-2 since that date, and, unsurprisingly, Ramírez has been driving the bus. He has a .297/.392/.593 slash line with 10 extra-base hits over the past 17 games and is putting the finishing touches on his third 30-30 campaign. He should be inside the top five in AL MVP voting for the sixth time in the past nine seasons.

4. Bobby Witt Jr., Royals

While the Guardians have surged since early September, the Royals have stumbled. Kansas City was one game out of a Wild Card spot at the end of Sept. 6, but it has dropped nine of the past 14 games to turn from a postseason hopeful into an also-ran. Witt's numbers remain a clear step down from last season, when he was the AL MVP runner-up. But with 23 homers and 37 steals, he is the first player in MLB history to record a 20-30 stat line in each of his first four seasons. His 7.7 fWAR ranks fourth in the Majors, trailing only Judge, Raleigh (8.8) and Ohtani (8.8).

5. George Springer, Blue Jays

There have been a handful of worthy MVP candidates on the team with the best record in the AL this season. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette both received consideration from our voters. Catcher Alejandro Kirk has had a 4-WAR season. But it's the 36-year-old Springer who gets into our top five. He has 30 homers, a .953 OPS and 4.7 fWAR. Those are his best marks in each category since 2019, when he won a Silver Slugger and finished seventh in the AL MVP voting. His .307 batting average is a career best as is his 162 wRC+, which is second only to Judge (199) in the AL.

Others receiving votes: Tarik Skubal, Tigers; Julio Rodríguez, Mariners; Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays; Junior Caminero, Rays; Nick Kurtz, A's; Byron Buxton, Twins; Bo Bichette, Blue Jays; Cody Bellinger, Yankees; Riley Greene, Tigers; Garrett Crochet, Red Sox; Jacob Wilson, A's; Jeremy Peña, Astros

NATIONAL LEAGUE

1. Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers (36 first-place votes)

In his 13 starts and 41 innings since returning to pitching on June 16, Ohtani has recorded 54 strikeouts and only nine walks. His 2.12 FIP is third-best among pitchers with at least 40 innings while his 27.1% strikeout-minus-walk rate is tied for 12th. He has allowed only one earned run over the past 13 2/3 innings, and he has posted an extremely low 3.9% barrel rate. Ohtani would have a rock-solid MVP case if we just focused on his offense -- he's atop the NL once again in runs (141), home runs (53, tied with Kyle Schwarber), OPS (1.015) and wRC+ (172). Including his brilliance on the mound makes Ohtani a near lock to take home a fourth MVP award.

2. Kyle Schwarber, Phillies (4 first-place votes)

Schwarber has put together a heck of a walk year. He has produced career highs in home runs (53), RBIs (129), wRC+ (152) and fWAR (4.7). He might end up leading the Senior Circuit in those first two categories. Schwarber's 59.7% hard-hit rate isn't just a personal best; it's No. 1 among all qualified hitters. However, his MVP chances have dimmed over the past few weeks. Since his momentous four-homer night on Aug. 28, Schwarber has four homers and a .395 slugging percentage across 22 games.

3. Juan Soto, Mets

After all of that early-season hullabaloo about Soto's underwhelming beginning as a Met, he's going to end up having another special year. His OPS (.933) is above .900 for the third straight season, and he's likely going to lead the Majors in walks (123) for the fourth time since 2021. His 42 homers are a career high, and Soto's 35 stolen bases -- nearly triple his previous high -- make him the 16th player in MLB history to put up a 40-30 season. He is the only Met in that small group.

4. Geraldo Perdomo, D-backs

Every player in each league's top five in this poll has seen their name on at least one MVP ballot. Well, everyone except Perdomo, who has had a tremendous breakout season at the plate. Strong defense has always made him valuable, but now with 19 home runs and a 138 wRC+, Perdomo has transformed into one of the game's most well-rounded players and a surprising MVP candidate. His 6.9 fWAR ranks fifth in the big leagues.

Perdomo has been fantastic since the July 31 Trade Deadline, batting .322 with a .971 OPS, eight homers and 11 steals in 47 games. Although the D-backs were a seller at the Deadline, those contributions have helped them make a late-season charge, and they entered Monday just one game out of a playoff spot.

5. Paul Skenes, Pirates

With Zack Wheeler out for the season, Skenes should run away with the NL Cy Young. He'll get plenty of down-ballot support for MVP, too. He's actually coming off his shortest start of the year as he allowed seven hits, three walks and three runs to the Cubs in just 3 2/3 innings on Tuesday. But no matter -- Skenes still leads all qualified pitchers with a 2.03 ERA. His 23.5% K-BB walk rate and 0.96 WHIP are unmatched in the NL, and he's right behind the Giants' Logan Webb for the league lead in strikeouts (211 to 209).

In the Live Ball Era (since 1920), the only qualified starting pitcher to have at least 200 K's and an ERA of 2.10 or better within his first two MLB seasons is Dwight Gooden for the 1985 Mets. After his season finale on Wednesday against Hunter Greene and the Reds, Skenes will likely double the size of that club.

Others receiving votes: Corbin Carroll, D-backs; Trea Turner, Phillies; Pete Alonso, Mets; Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cubs; Francisco Lindor, Mets; Manny Machado, Padres; Fernando Tatis Jr., Padres; Freddy Peralta, Brewers; Freddie Freeman, Dodgers; Ketel Marte, D-backs