Odds: Which player will go No. 1 in the Draft?

With the calendar turning to May and the release of Pipeline's Draft 150 prospects list still hot off the proverbial press, we continue to march closer to the MLB Draft -- just over two months away now -- in Atlanta.

On the latest MLB Pipeline Podcast, Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo honed in on the question that's on everyone's mind: Who will go No. 1?

The discussion began with the duo establishing parameters for who is realistically in the running for the top pick. It will come to no one's surprise that the top three prospects were runaways: Ethan Holliday (No. 1), Seth Hernandez (No. 2) and Jamie Arnold (No. 3).

Aiva Arquette (No. 5) also entered the discussion as an outside candidate, and of course, you can't play odds without including the field variable as well.

So who is lined up best for that potential $11.1 million payday? Here's what our experts had to say:

Ethan Holliday, SS/3B, Stillwater High School (OK)
Callis: I like Ethan, and I think he deserves to be No. 1 on our list. But I don’t think he’s clear-cut, so I’m going to go 60% on Ethan Holliday just because of the nature of this class, as opposed to, he’s worlds better than everyone else.

Mayo: I’m going to say 50% for Ethan Holliday. Mostly because of that last part that you mentioned, Jim, that it’s not so clear-cut that he’s the best player.

Seth Hernandez, RHP, Corona High School (CA)
Mayo: If there was going to be a team and a general manager, especially, who would be willing to roll those dice and be the first ever to take a right-hander out of high school, I think it would be Mike Rizzo and the Nationals. So I’m going to say there’s a 20% chance that Seth Hernandez goes No. 1.

Callis: I’m going to go 30% on Seth Hernandez. I think he is the most purely talented player in this Draft because as advanced a high school pitcher as he is, along with high quality of stuff, he’s also a pretty interesting power hitter too. I just think that if the Nationals think that Seth Hernandez is the best player, Mike Rizzo and his team are going to take the best player. I don’t think it would be, ‘Hey, our scouts think this guy is the best player, but we can’t take a high school right-hander because no one has done this.’ Mike Rizzo is a man of conviction, so if they think Seth Hernandez is the best guy, I think they will take Seth Hernandez.

Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State
Mayo: I’m going to say Jamie Arnold is 25% to go No. 1. I think Jamie Arnold would be the play if there’s the need to get someone who is going to get to the big leagues faster, if you don’t want to wait. And I think Jamie Arnold has the chance to be a very good starting pitcher in the big leagues. I don’t want to undersell how good Jamie Arnold can be. But Seth Hernandez has a much higher ceiling. So I think that, if they decide they want to try to turn the corner a little faster and they want to take a little less risk and you’re getting a very good, college lefty with an incredibly impressive resume in college of success in big games, doesn’t shy away from the spotlight. Stuff plus feel plus competitiveness, all of those things, then that’s when they take Jamie Arnold.

Callis: I’m giving 6.7% for Jamie Arnold. I always feel bad when it’s like, Jamie Arnold has a higher floor, that it feels like you're saying, oh, his ceiling is not that good. And he does have ceiling. I feel like he is a safer play than Seth Hernandez. I just think the Nationals are a ceiling organization as opposed to a floor organization, and they would take Seth Hernandez’s higher ceiling over Jamie Arnold’s higher floor.

Aiva Arquette, SS, Oregon State
Mayo: He gets a 3% chance. And this is based on nothing other than decision-makers for the Nationals going to watch Arquette last weekend. I don’t see him being a plan A, but could be a fallback plan B. He’s a college hitter who’s performed. He will likely move quickly.

Callis: I respect Aiva Arquette, he’s obviously No. 5 on our list, but 0% chance. I just think that if you’re going to draft Aiva Arquette, Ethan Holliday is a better version of Aiva Arquette. They both are represented by Scott Boras and the Nationals take a lot of Boras clients so there is that.

The rest of the field
Mayo: Just a 2% for the field. Because I don’t really see anybody else entering into the conversation.

Callis: Even 3.3% feels slightly high to me here, but we’re going to stick with it because I do think that this Draft is volatile. But I just think that if you’re talking about anyone else at this point, you’re cutting a deal and you’re limited in how low you can cut that deal. I don’t know, maybe if Jace LaViolette (No. 7), who is a top college position player coming into the year, finishes the season strong, maybe he pushes himself back up a little bit. He would probably be my next best candidate after the top three in my mind.