PHILADELPHIA -- The past month has been a bit of a roller coaster for Mick Abel.
But it's the next month that could get really interesting for both the 23-year-old right-hander and the Phillies.
Abel -- rated as Philadelphia's No. 5 prospect -- struggled with his command for the second time in three starts in Saturday night's 11-4 loss to the Mets at Citizens Bank Park. After giving up three homers in four innings against the Cubs on June 10, he was tagged for four home runs in just three innings against the Mets.
That's seven home runs over seven innings in those two outings. But in his other three, Abel has not allowed a single homer over 16 1/3 innings.
So which version of Abel can we expect moving forward? Is it the one who outdueled Pirates ace Paul Skenes in a remarkable big league debut just one month ago? Or is it the one struggling to keep the ball in the park over the past couple of weeks?
That's the question that both the Phillies and any potential trade partners will need to answer.
Following that impressive debut on May 18, Abel returned to the Minors with some speculating that one start was a perfect showcase for an eventual trade. But with Aaron Nola's stay on the injured list dragging on longer than expected and the Phillies wanting to move Taijuan Walker back to the bullpen, Abel quickly went from an expendable depth piece at Triple-A to a key member of the big league rotation.
Of course, the Phillies' rotation is still their biggest strength.
Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suárez and Cristopher Sánchez have all been lights-out atop the rotation. Jesús Luzardo has come back down after a remarkable run to start the season, but the Phillies still have plenty of faith in him -- especially as a back-end starter. Top prospect Andrew Painter, who allowed two runs over five innings Saturday night in his latest start for Triple-A Lehigh Valley, is expected to join the rotation at some point next month.
Nola, meanwhile, is expected back in the second half, though his exact timetable is unclear.
Thus, the Phillies could have a rotation of Wheeler, Suárez, Sánchez, Luzardo and Painter by the time the July 31 Trade Deadline rolls around. Nola could also be back or very close to it by then. Even looking forward to next season, the Phils have Wheeler, Nola, Sánchez, Luzardo and Painter penciled into the rotation -- and that's without knowing what happens with Suárez, who is in the final year of his contract.
In other words, Abel is still very much in play as a potential trade chip for the Phils in their quest to shore up a bullpen that ranks 25th in the Majors with a 4.64 ERA.
Regardless of whether he goes or stays, getting Abel back on track will be vital for the Phillies. After all, a couple more homer-heavy outings could greatly diminish his value come next month.
So, how do they do that?
“He's just got to get back to doing what he does,” said manager Rob Thomson. “Executing pitches [and] commanding his fastball.”
The three home runs Abel allowed to the Cubs on June 10 all came on pitches up in the zone. As for the four on Saturday, three were on fastballs out over the heart of the plate. The other was on a breaking ball inside just off the plate.
Even outside of the home runs, Abel has simply left too many hittable pitches up in the zone and out over the plate of late.
“I’ve got to just take it as it is, be honest with myself,” Abel said. “I wasn’t locating my fastball, so that’s what I’m going to get after in my bullpen [session] this week.”
For a pitcher who plays off his fastball to make his other pitches work, his inability to execute it has not only resulted in a lot of hard contact, but a lot fewer swings and misses. After recording nine strikeouts in his debut, Abel has just nine in four outings since. He hasn't recorded more than three in any of those four starts.
Abel was averaging 10.6 strikeouts per nine innings with Lehigh Valley this season. He averages 10.7 for his Minor League career. He’s averaging just 6.9 through five starts with the Phillies -- and 4.7 in his past four outings.
“I’ve just got to get back to work tomorrow,” Abel said.