During Spring Training, we polled 59 MLB.com experts about which players they thought would lead their respective leagues in major offensive and pitching categories this year.
The answers featured some big names, including Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Bobby Witt Jr., Tarik Skubal and Paul Skenes.
But nearly halfway through the 2025 season, there are several surprising contenders making serious bids to win major stat races, none of whom received a single vote in that poll back in March.
Here’s a look at those names, as well as our preseason picks:
Batting Average
AL: Jonathan Aranda, Rays (preseason pick: Bobby Witt Jr., Royals)
Witt is the reigning MLB batting champ after he hit .332 last year. The young Royals superstar isn’t nearly that high in the ranks so far this year, though he’s hitting a very respectable .284. There is a surprising name in the thick of the AL race, however. Aranda is batting .328, ranked third behind only Judge and Jacob Wilson of the A’s. The 27-year-old infielder is having a breakout campaign, already establishing career highs in homers (eight) and RBIs (41) to go along with the stellar batting average.
NL: Will Smith, Dodgers (preseason pick: Luis Arraez, Padres)
A Dodger in the thick of the NL batting race? Surely, you mean Ohtani or Freddie Freeman. Nope, we’re talking about the man behind the plate who is doing work at the plate in 2025. He has established himself as one of the best-hitting catchers in the game, but he’s taken it to another level this year -- his .325 batting average is more than 60 points above his career figure. He’s a virtual lock for his third straight All-Star selection and might even add a surprising batting title to his burgeoning resume.
Home runs
AL: Cal Raleigh, Mariners (preseason pick: Aaron Judge, Yankees)
The man they call “Big Dumper” is on pace to have one of the best individual seasons by a catcher in MLB history. Raleigh is a slugger, this we knew -- he hit 30 or more homers in each of the past two seasons -- but leading the Majors within a month of the All-Star break? With two more round trippers on Friday, he has 29 for the season, ahead of the obvious preseason choice in this category, Judge, by two. His 29th was historic, giving him the most home runs by a primary catcher prior to the All-Star break in MLB history.
NL: Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cubs (preseason pick: Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers)
Our preseason pick was the guy who became the first player to hit at least 50 homers and steal at least 50 bases in the same season last year. It’s a good choice, and Ohtani is currently leading the NL with 25 home runs. But within striking distance is perhaps the biggest surprise in baseball this year, Crow-Armstrong. We knew PCA had pop and blinding speed, but his slugging has vaulted him into the MVP conversation -- he’s got 20 homers to go along with 23 steals.
Stolen bases
AL: Luis Robert Jr., White Sox (preseason pick: Bobby Witt Jr., Royals)
Witt is among the fastest players in the game, and in just four MLB seasons, he’s already racked up 131 steals. But he’s trailing Robert by one bag for second place in the AL. The slugging center fielder for the White Sox is certainly fast, but prior to 2025, he had never stolen more than 23 bases in a season (2024). This year, he’s already just one away from tying that mark.
NL: Oneil Cruz, Pirates (preseason pick: Elly De La Cruz, Reds)
De La Cruz was certainly a reasonable preseason pick after he led the Majors with 67 steals in 2024. And while EDLC finds himself among the league leaders again this year, the current NL leader is none other than the 6-foot-7 Cruz, who has swiped 25 bags -- already three more than his career high, set just last year. Cruz is as toolsy as they come, but the proliferation in steals is certainly eyebrow-raising for a man his size.
ERA
AL: Kris Bubic, Royals (preseason pick: Tarik Skubal, Tigers)
Bubic has come seemingly out of nowhere to dominate opposing hitters in the first half of this season. Last year, he posted a 2.67 ERA in 27 relief appearances after returning from Tommy John surgery. Back in a starting role after making some changes in his repertoire, he’s been brilliant in 2025, pitching to a 2.12 ERA in 14 starts for Kansas City. That’s just behind our preseason pick, Skubal (2.06), for fourth in the league behind Hunter Brown and Max Fried.
NL: David Peterson, Mets (preseason pick: Paul Skenes, Pirates)
The top three in the NL ERA race at the moment are Skenes -- our preseason pick -- Logan Webb and reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Chris Sale. Sounds about right, right? Next on the list? Peterson, whose 2.60 ERA is better than luminaries such as Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Zack Wheeler. The 29-year-old southpaw was very good for the Mets after returning from hip surgery in 2024, posting a 2.90 ERA in 21 starts. But so far in ’25, he has a legitimate chance to be a surprise ERA champ in the NL.
Strikeouts
AL: Carlos Rodón, Yankees (preseason pick: Tarik Skubal, Tigers)
Garrett Crochet and Skubal are No. 1 and No. 2, respectively, on the AL strikeouts leaderboard. Not a shock. But while he’s been known to be a strikeout pitcher in the past, Rodón’s position in third place is mildly surprising given how things have gone for him in the past two years. From 2023 through ’24, the left-hander battled injuries and saw his K rate drop from 33.4% in ’22, to 25.3% over the next two seasons. But he’s back up over 30% this year, which has translated into 114 punchouts.
NL: MacKenzie Gore, Nationals (preseason pick: Paul Skenes, Pirates)
Drafted third overall by the Padres and one of the organization’s top prospects before he was dealt to the Nationals in the Juan Soto trade three years ago, Gore has always had big potential. It’s starting to be realized, as the 26-year-old left-hander has upped his strikeout rate significantly and lowered his ERA -- his 33.6% K rate far surpasses his career-best 25.9% in 2023, and his 3.19 ERA is more than half a run better than his ’24 ERA (3.90). That he leads Skenes by a fairly wide margin in Ks (123 to 106) and leads the league is quite something.
Saves
AL: Carlos Estévez, Royals (preseason pick: Emmanuel Clase, Guardians)
Clase has won the AL saves crown in each of the last three years, so it’s no surprise he was our preseason choice. But following a shaky postseason in 2024, he’s been up and down so far in ’25. Meanwhile, Estévez, who saved a combined 57 games for the Angels and Phillies the past two years, leads the league with 22 already this season for Kansas City. He’s four saves clear of the Astros’ Josh Hader and the Mariners’ Andrés Muñoz, who are tied for second in the AL.
NL: Trevor Megill, Brewers (preseason pick: Edwin Díaz, Mets)
With Devin Williams sidelined due to injury for most of the 2024 campaign, Megill became Milwaukee’s primary closer and converted 21 of 24 save chances. This season, he’s already picked up 16 saves, good for fourth in the NL behind the Padres’ Robert Suarez, the Nationals’ Kyle Finnegan and the Reds’ Emilio Pagán. While he has his work cut out for him (Suarez leads the league with 21 saves), Megill has an outside chance at becoming quite the surprise saves leader in ’25.