Command issues frustrate Wheeler as Phillies drop battle of aces

PHILADELPHIA -- Zack Wheeler's case for his first National League Cy Young Award took another hit on Saturday afternoon.

The Phillies' ace allowed three home runs for the first time in more than a year in a 7-5 loss to the Tigers at Citizens Bank Park. Though Wheeler struck out 10 batters, he also allowed four runs (three earned) off nine hits over six-plus innings.

While Wheeler didn't help his Cy Young chances, Detroit ace Tarik Skubal appeared to be solidifying his own case for back-to-back American League Cy Young Awards until the Phillies finally got to him in the seventh. Skubal cruised through six scoreless innings before J.T. Realmuto hit an RBI double and Nick Castellanos followed with a two-run homer, but it proved to be too little, too late.

The highly anticipated pitching matchup -- one that many thought could have taken place at last month's All-Star Game before Wheeler opted not to play -- appeared poised to live up to the hype after the two aces racked up three strikeouts apiece in the first inning.

But Wheeler allowed solo homers to Colt Keith and Kerry Carpenter in the third inning and a two-run shot to Javier Báez in the seventh. It was the first time Wheeler allowed three homers in an outing since July 29, 2024, against the Yankees.

"That's why it's so frustrating, because he's not going to give up anything,” Wheeler said of facing Skubal. “You just want to go out there and match him, put up zeros. It was a battle, but I came up on the short end. He's the best in the game.”

Wheeler has a 4.94 ERA over his past four starts, raising his season ERA from 2.17 to 2.64. Perhaps even more concerning is that he hasn't had his usual extra zip over his past few outings.

Though Wheeler's overall four-seam velocity averaged 96.0 mph -- just shy of his season average of 96.2 -- he topped out at 97.5 mph against the Tigers. It was the second straight outing in which he didn't hit 98 mph.

“He touched 97 today and was pretty much 95, 96,” manager Rob Thomson said. “So I don't worry about that.”

Wheeler threw only four pitches of even 97 mph against Detroit. He had just two such pitches in his last start and seven in the one before that. To put that in perspective, he averaged 23 over his previous five outings before this stretch.

Put another way, only 12% of Wheeler's four-seam fastballs (13 of 111) have exceeded 97 mph over his past three starts. He was reaching 97 mph with nearly half (48%) of his four-seamers over his previous 13 outings.

"Whatever comes out, comes out," Wheeler said.

It’s not the velocity that’s bothering Wheeler. It’s the command – or lack thereof.

"Fastball command was off, pulling a lot of stuff,” Wheeler said. “Sinker was probably the worst it's ever been. ... Fastball command just hasn't been there. Just got to get that back."

Wheeler's main competition for the NL Cy Young Award, Paul Skenes, also didn't have his sharpest outing on Saturday. He allowed four earned runs and struck out eight over five-plus innings against the Rockies.

Skenes leads the NL in ERA (2.02), but Wheeler leads in strikeouts (182 to Skenes' 154). They both have a 0.92 WHIP.

But it was Wheeler's counterpart on Saturday who issued a reminder of just how unpredictable the Cy Young process can be from year to year.

Skubal, a ninth-round pick in the 2018 Draft, had never so much as been mentioned on a Cy Young ballot until last year, when he received every first-place vote to win unanimously. Wheeler, meanwhile, will undoubtedly once again receive a share of Cy Young votes this season, marking the fifth time he has done so in his six seasons with the Phillies.

A Cy Young Award would be nice, but the bigger goal is a World Series title.

The Phillies likely need Wheeler at his best to get there.

"Like I said last time, I just need to be better,” Wheeler said. “I need to get my command back and, for whatever reason, I just haven't had it. You go through those times throughout the season."

Thomson isn’t concerned it will linger much longer.

“Oh, I truly believe he's going to come out of it,” Thomson said.