What to expect from Cubs top prospect Caissie in the big leagues

Five years later, the Yu Darvish trade is set to pay dividends for the Cubs.

In December 2020, Chicago was coming off its fifth playoff berth in six seasons but looking to reduce payroll after the pandemic season. It nontendered Kyle Schwarber on Dec. 2, then made a bigger cost-cutting move four days after Christmas. The Cubs shipped Darvish and Victor Caratini to the Padres for Zach Davies and four prospects who had yet to reach full-season ball: infielders Reginald Preciado and Yeison Santana and outfielders Owen Caissie and Ismael Mena.

Davis posted a 5.78 ERA and led the National League in walks during his lone season in Chicago. Mena and Preciado have yet to reach Double-A, while Santana was released two years ago. The Cubs haven't been back to the postseason since 2020.

But the saving grace of the Darvish deal joined the team for its game against the Blue Jays on Thursday afternoon. Caissie, ranked No. 45 on MLB Pipeline's recently revised Top 100 Prospects list, is from Burlington, Ont., and made his big league debut against likely future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer about 35 miles from where he grew up.

One of the best power-hitting prospects in baseball, Caissie replaced Miguel Amaya, who sprained his left ankle and was carted off the field in a 4-1 win over Toronto on Wednesday night. The Cubs' offense could use a jolt after scoring just 33 runs in their last 10 games, during which they've gone 4-6 and fallen 7 1/2 games behind the Brewers in the NL Central. Chicago does maintain a comfortable 5 1/2-game lead in the NL Wild Card race.

Caissie has been on a tear at Triple-A Iowa, slashing .383/.457/.617 with three home runs in his last 17 games. He's batting .289/.389/.566 overall with 22 homers in 93 contests, ranking third in the International League in homers, extra-base hits (50) and total bases (196) and fifth in slugging and OPS (.955) despite being one of the youngest players in the circuit (he turned 23 last month).

The Cubs have pushed Caissie aggressively since acquiring him, sending him to High-A at age 19 in 2022, and he has repeatedly responded to the challenge of facing significantly older competition. He was part of championship clubs at High-A South Bend and Double-A Tennessee in 2022 and '23 before being one of the most productive hitters in prospect-laden lineups at Iowa the past two seasons.

With the bat speed and loft in his left-handed stroke and the strength and leverage in his 6-foot-3 frame, Caissie hits balls exceptionally hard for his age. His average exit velocity of 91.3 mph in Triple-A is on par with those of Freddie Freeman and Bryce Harper (91.4 mph) in the Majors, while his max exit velo of 113.3 mph and average 12.4 degree launch angle are comparable to Harper's as well.

Caissie offers at least 30-homer upside, and his power plays from left-center to the right-field line and against both southpaws and right-handers. His aggressive mindset at the plate and naturally long swing have led to a 29 percent strikeout rate in the Minors, but he's also a career .280 hitter with a 14 percent walk rate. He has displayed better plate discipline in the last two months, maintaining a 20 percent K rate while drawing walks 13 percent of the time.

While he's known most for his slugging, Caissie's athleticism is a bit underrated. He can flash plus speed once he gets going and swipe an occasional base, though he's more of an average runner. He has improved his reads and routes in the outfield to the point where he's an average defender at the corners, and his plus arm strength fits nicely in right field.

While he was at DH for his debut on Thursday, it's unclear exactly how Caissie will fit into a Cubs lineup that still stands third in MLB in scoring at 5.08 runs per game. Pete Crow-Armstrong may be slumping, but he's an MVP candidate providing Gold Glove-caliber defense in center field. Chicago has veterans Ian Happ and Kyle Tucker manning the outfield corners and Seiya Suzuki usually at DH.

There was thought that the Cubs might move Caissie at the Trade Deadline in search of starting pitching, but he's also a very nice insurance policy if Tucker departs as a free agent after this year. They've never filled the lefty-slugger void left when they bid goodbye to Schwarber, and Caissie could do just that.