How the Padres can win the National League West

This story was excerpted from AJ Cassavell’s Padres Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

So, it’s all square atop the National League West with 31 games left to play.

After the Padres took two of three against the Dodgers this weekend at Petco Park, the division race is once again tied. We’re headed to crunch time -- the fun part of the season. Baseball with serious stakes on a daily basis. And maybe a bit of scoreboard watching, too?

“None,” said left fielder Gavin Sheets with a wry smile. “If we win every game out, we’ll be fine.”

That’s clearly the right mindset. Even if it’s not entirely true. (If it comes down to a tie, the Dodgers own the head-to-head tiebreaker.)

So how do the Padres win the West? Here’s what they’ll need to do over the final five weeks.

Early leads often
Obvious, right? Score first, and you’re more likely to win. But it’s truer for the Padres right now than anyone else. Their bullpen is the deepest in baseball. If they’re ahead after five, they’re going to feel good about winning. No team comes close to matching the 28 times this season they’ve gotten at least four scoreless frames from their relievers.

Here’s the other thing: Opponents are very aware that the Padres’ bullpen is that good -- and that deep. It’s so deep, in fact, that the Padres can routinely use their high-leverage arms in situations that other teams do not. They do it in the fifth and sixth innings. They do it with four- and five-run leads.

So, you’re an opposing manager facing the Padres. Are you going to burn your good relievers chasing a game you’re already losing? Against a team with this bullpen? I wouldn’t. Which leaves the Padres offense every opportunity to tack on against weaker relievers. If only they can get an early lead, that is.

Length from the starters
I think it’s fine if the Padres want to rely (very) heavily on their bullpen in October. They might need only four-to-five innings a night from their starting pitchers. There are plenty of off-days, and less to worry about regarding workloads.

But over the next five weeks, it’s imperative that the Padres get length from their starting pitchers. It’s the best way to keep the five high-leverage arms in their bullpen fresh and effective. If he absolutely needs to, manager Mike Shildt won’t hesitate to use all five of those arms in the same game. But doing so has repercussions on the next day’s game (and the game after that and so forth).

Take the first two games of this weekend’s series for example. Yu Darvish and Nestor Cortes worked six innings apiece. The Padres’ bullpen nailed down both games with their high-leverage relievers, and only one of those relievers even pitched in both games (Jason Adam).

Beginning Sept. 5 (in Colorado of all places), the Padres play 19 games in 20 days. By then, it seems likely they’ll have Michael King back in their rotation. Their best chance at winning as many of those games as possible is to keep a steady mix of their high-leverage relievers available, not using more than three per night. And the best way to do that is with quality starts from their rotation.

Keep the vibes high
No denying it, the vibes are good right now. Sure doesn’t feel like the Dog Days, does it?

Those vibes don’t happen by accident. The Padres made five trades on Deadline day involving 22 players -- and their clubhouse hasn’t missed a beat.

“Obviously, the biggest tip of the hat to the players,” Shildt said. “Tip of the hat to [general manager] A.J. [Preller] for acquiring them. Tip of the hat to the clubhouse and staff for acclimating. Because that transition was really done well. … These guys came in, and they’ve just absolutely embraced what we’re about. Just great fits.”

As Shildt noted, I think the front office deserves some credit there. Those moves weren’t made on a spreadsheet. They were made with the firm belief that the different personalities they’ve added to this clubhouse would be a fit -- and thus far, they absolutely have been.

Take advantage of the schedule
Tonight, the Padres begin a three-game series against a good Mariners team in Seattle. When it’s over, they’ll have about a month left in their season. Schedule-wise, nobody in baseball has an easier final month.

That’s true based on the average winning percentage of their opponents. But it’s also true anecdotally. They’ll be playing lots of games against teams with little to play for. After Seattle, the Padres only have two series against teams in playoff position -- the Mets in mid-September and then the Brewers.

Meanwhile, San Diego has 10 games in September against the Rockies and White Sox, owners of the two worst records in baseball. Generally, the Padres have done a fantastic job of beating up on inferior opponents this year. (Good teams do that.) They’re 49-24 against sub-.500 teams.

If the Padres can keep the pedal to the floor against the teams they should beat, there’s a good chance they’ll be celebrating a first division title in 19 years.