What to watch in last weeks of Braves' season

This story was excerpted from Mark Bowman’s Braves Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

ATLANTA -- The 2025 Speedway Classic champions are on a roll, having won nine of their past 11 games. Unfortunately, the Braves are still tied to the fact that they entered this stretch 19 games under .500 (47-66).

Instead of taking a logical and sensical approach by saying there is still no reason to think the Braves will reach the postseason, I’ll just look at how improbable it would be if you even looked at it from a very optimistic point of view.

Let’s say the Mets continue to collapse and the Reds have a losing record the rest of the way. Still, even if we allow ourselves to believe 82 wins might be enough to secure the final NL Wild Card spot, the Braves would need to win 26 of their last 38 games.

And the Mets would need to win just 17 of their last 38 games to get to 83 wins. OK, seeing them last week, that actually is possible. But I don’t see that happening with the Reds also collapsing down the stretch. Cincinnati needs to win just 17 of its last 37 to get to 82 wins.

Anybody else think it’s ridiculous I spent a few paragraphs pointing out how improbable it would be for the Braves to get a playoff spot even if the bar was at 82 wins?

Yeah, Chris Sale could be back soon. But as Braves manager Brian Snitker said last week, there’s no reason to be optimistic about Spencer Schwellenbach or Reynaldo López pitching again this year. And, he also confirmed Joe Jiménez won’t pitch this season.

So, instead of hoping for a miracle, let’s focus on what should keep us excited over the season’s final weeks.

1. The future has been brightened during what has arguably been the most disappointing season in Atlanta history. What would rival this one? 2014? Maybe. 2011? It was mostly great until September arrived. But from start to finish, I think this current season takes the cake.

With that being said, the three top developments have been Drake Baldwin’s emergence as a favorite for the National League Rookie of the Year Award, Hurston Waldrep’s emergence as an MLB-ready starter and JR Ritchie’s ascension to a 2026 big league rotation candidate. Watching how each of these players finishes should enhance optimism about next season and beyond.

2. Remember a couple weeks ago, when I wrote that Michael Harris II had done enough since the break to convince me to once again predict a 30-30 season for 2026? Well, if he keeps this up, maybe I’ll be touting him as my darkhorse MVP candidate. He ranked last among MLB players in OPS before the break and is now ranked fifth among them in this category since the break.

Oh yeah, he also ranks third among MLB players in fWAR since the break. But most importantly, he looks comfortable and consequently dangerous with his altered stance. As bad as the first few months were, he’s likely going to end the season with 20-plus homers, 20-plus steals and quite possibly an .800 OPS.

Harris’ OPS has gone from .550 to .688 over 29 games since the break. Is it too much to think he could add another 112 points over the final 38 games?

3. Sale threw 56 pitches over four innings for Triple-A Gwinnett on Sunday. Snitker said the 2024 NL Cy Young Award winner will be activated after he gets his pitch count up above 75. So, it looks like Sale will make one more rehab start before joining a rotation that includes Spencer Strider, Joey Wentz, Erick Fedde and Bryce Elder.

Wentz’s story is inspirational. I always thought he was the best of the pitchers in the Braves' 2016 Draft class, which also included Ian Anderson, Bryse Wilson, Kyle Muller and World Series starter Tucker Davidson, among others. Now, nearly 10 years and three organizations later, he’s posted a 2.60 ERA over seven appearances (six starts) since joining Atlanta. Don’t try to predict baseball. Just enjoy the wonderful and unpredictable stories it creates.

4. Strider was very frustrated after tying career highs in runs allowed (eight) and home runs allowed (three) on Tuesday in New York. For the second time in his past three starts, he recorded low whiff totals. He said opponents have had very comfortable at-bats lately.

Is he tipping his slider? Or is he still just readjusting after his scheduled Aug. 2 start in Bristol was erased by the rain that fell after he was done warming up? We’re creatures of habit, so just slightly altering the schedule can have a lingering effect.