Inbox: Where do top Draft prospects fit on the Top 100?
Happy 4th, everyone! A week from now, we'll be heading to Atlanta for a whole lot of baseball activity. On the MLB Pipeline side of things, it'll start with Saturday morning's High School Home Run Derby, followed by the All-Star Futures Game that afternoon. Then the 2025 Draft starts on Sunday, with the top three rounds, and Rounds 4-20 follow on Monday.
So there’s a lot going on … and I didn't even mention our recent refreshing of the Top 100 that did things like vault Chase Burns to No. 2 and Konnor Griffin into the top 15. All of this, of course, leads to a lot of questions from you. So let’s get to them.
We haven't really started to dig into how the Draft guys slot into the Top 100 just yet, but we will have a full-on re-rank of that list and all of the team Top 30s after the Draft is over. Last year, we put 12 draftees in the Top 100 when we unveiled the new lists, up from 11 the previous three years. The 2024 Draft was stronger, and certainly more top-heavy, than this year's class, but our current Top 100 could use a boost. Let's see how it plays out.
I'll use colleague Jim Callis' newest mock, fresh off the press (kids, once upon a time, people had to wait for their news when newspapers hit newsstands, straight from a printing press, thus the old tyme expression). Keep in mind that we won't necessarily take the top 10 from the mock in that order and slot them in because not everyone goes in the exact talent-based order. But here are Jim's top 10 picks and where I'd slot them into a top 100, if it were only me deciding, with their Draft Top 250 rank in parentheses:
1. Nationals: Kade Anderson, LHP, Louisiana State (No. 2) -- No. 41 after Hagen Smith
2. Angels: Liam Doyle, LHP, Tennessee (No. 8) -- No. 68 after Jonah Tong
3. Mariners: Seth Hernandez, RHP, Corona (Calif.) HS (No. 3) -- No. 32 after Travis Sykora
4. Rockies: Ethan Holliday, SS/3B, Stillwater (Okla.) HS (No. 1) -- No. 22 after Jacob Misiorowski
5. Cardinals: Ike Irish, OF/C, Auburn (No. 11) -- No. 78 after Gage Jump
6. Pirates: Aiva Arquette, SS, Oregon State (No. 6) -- No. 50 after Cooper Pratt
7. Marlins: Eli Willits, SS, Fort Cobb-Broxton (Okla.) HS (No. 5) -- No. 45 after Franklin Arias
8. Blue Jays: Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State (No. 4) -- No. 43 after Luis Peña
9. Reds: Billy Carlson, SS, Corona (Calif.) HS (No. 7) -- No. 56 after Justin Crawford
10. White Sox: JoJo Parker, SS, Purvis (Miss.) HS (No. 9) -- No. 58 after Arjun Nimmala
I'd also give consideration to No. 10 Kyson Witherspoon, who Jim mocked going No. 13 overall, as well as No. 12 Steele Hall (No. 15 in the mock) and No. 13 Daniel Pierce (No. 12 in the mock). If they all make it, that would be 13 total draftees, besting last year's total by one.
I had been noticing some buzz on social media about Ryan Johnson not getting his due based on how he's pitching, and I'll be the first to admit that I had lost a little track of him, especially when Draft coverage took over most of my brain. So this question made me peek under the hood a bit more.
After making the Angels' Opening Day roster in the bullpen, then struggling, Los Angeles sent Johnson, its 2024 second-round pick out of Dallas Baptist, down to High-A Tri-City so he could stretch back out as a starter. He's currently No. 7 on the Angels' Top 30, and I can tell you this examination cements that he will move up the list when we do the Top 30 re-ranks.
To say that stretching him out has been going well would be an understatement. Johnson's 2.38 ERA with Tri-City would lead the Northwest League if he had enough innings to qualify. His .228 batting average against would place him fifth, and he's striking out 9.7 per nine while walking only 2.0 per nine. He's gone seven full innings in his past three starts, showing he can pitch deep into games.
There were concerns with the effort in his delivery (which also helps him in terms of deception) and that he was destined for the bullpen, but this is an encouraging response to those worries. I'd like to see him get bumped to Double-A and see how it plays there, but I'm impressed with how he's pressed the reset button here.
We just moved Stewart up 10 spots in our Top 100, so clearly we're fans of the Reds' infielder, No. 3 on their Top 30. All the 2025 Futures Game participant does is hit, and he's had no issues with the jump to Double-A, as he leads the Southern League in hitting (.320) and sits sixth in on-base (.382), second in slugging (.498) as his power has started to show up more (10 homers) and fourth in OPS (.880 OPS). His 155 wRC+ is in a virtual tie with Carlos Sanchez for the highest among Reds Minor Leaguers in full-season ball.
He's also a much better athlete than people give him credit for, with 13 steals, and I think he will eventually be the Reds' third baseman in the big leagues. He's still only 21, so I don't want to be too over-aggressive, but if he keeps hitting like this, I could see him reaching Triple-A in the second half of the season, which could put him in line for a job in Cincy sooner rather than later. Whether that's on Opening Day -- what happens to Noelvi Marte? -- remains to be seen, but Stewart should impact that lineup in 2026. He's already our top-ranked third base prospect, and I could see him moving into top 25 territory overall if he keeps swinging the bat like this.
We answered this one on this week's MLB Pipeline Podcast, so be sure to give it a listen. It's not so crazy. Konnor Griffin, taken No. 9 overall by the Pirates in last year's Draft, has been one of the most exciting prospects in all of baseball. We knew he probably had the best all-around raw tools of anyone in the Draft class but weren't sure how the hit tool would translate. He's made some adjustments, and boy has he hit, with a combined .336/.409/.541 line, 13 homers and 37 steals. His 164 wRC+ is as good as any teenager in full-season ball (tied with the Rays' Theo Gillen), and he's already earned a promotion.
The way he's been hitting in Greensboro, the 2025 Futures Gamer could push his way to Double-A Altoona before the year is over. Even if he starts back there in 2026, would it shock anyone for him to force the Pirates' hand and hit his way to Pittsburgh? Sure, the organization typically is a little more conservative in advancing players, but it already went outside its comfort zone by sending him to Bradenton at the start of the year, and Griffin feels like an outlier. I think we see Griffin playing shortstop in PNC Park in July or August of next year.