What to expect from O's top prospect Basallo in big leagues

The signing of Samuel Basallo for $1.3 million in January 2021 might not seem like that big of an event, just another of many acquisitions by a Major League team on the international amateur market.

But prior to that point, the Orioles had largely ignored that pool of potential big leaguers. Changing that was a priority for Mike Elias when he was brought in as the team’s general manager in November 2018. Basallo was the first big signing of this new effort, and that bonus was a franchise record at the time.

His first two summers didn’t produce "wow" surface numbers, but he was already impressing the O’s player development staff with his bat speed and exit velocities from the left side of the plate. The 2023 season is what really put him on the map. Playing almost the entire year at age 18, he split the season across two levels of A ball, briefly touched Double-A and finished the year with 20 homers and a .953 OPS. That put him in the same conversation as other top hitting prospects coming through the system. Basallo’s bat clearly belonged with the likes of Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday, Coby Mayo and more. It was a question of when, not if, he’d join that big league lineup.

The when turned out to be Sunday, when the Orioles brought him to the big leagues for the first time. And though he just turned 21 this past week, there was a definite “what took you so long?” initial response, because it’s been believed that his bat has been ready for some time.

Now he’s here and should get a nice runway to audition for a full-time spot next year. And if his Minor League career has shown anything, it's that he’s going to hit. Because when he’s been healthy, Basallo has raked and hit for power at every stop. The 2024 Futures Game participant comes to the big leagues with a career OPS of .864. This year, his first full season in Triple-A, has led to a .966 OPS and 23 homers, better than those 2023 numbers. His name is all over the Triple-A leaderboard for all kinds of stats (minimum 250 plate appearances):

xSLG: .625, 1st
ISO: .320, 1st
Barrel rate: 21%, 1st
Avg EV: 94.2 mph, 2nd
Barrels: 41, 2nd
xWOBA: .430, 2nd
Hard-hit rate: 57.4%, 4th
wRC+: 151, 5th
SLG: .589, 7th
90th-percentile EV: 108.3 mph, 8th
OPS: .966, 8th
wOBA: .407, 9th
xBA: .281, 10th

That 90th percentile EV is in the same range as big leaguers like Nick Kurtz (108.4), Matt Olson (108.2), Kyle Stowers (108.2), Fernando Tatis Jr. (108.2) and Rafael Devers (108.2). His average exit velocity would put him in a virtual tie with Juan Soto in the big leagues. That hard-hit rate would be fourth, just behind Shohei Ohtani.

In other words, he hits the ball hard, a lot. He’s always had a knack for contact, and his willingness to take walks (13.7 percent walk rate this year) has helped him get to his power even more consistently in 2025. And for a young player with that much power, he’s kept the swings-and-misses relatively in check (21 percent in his career; 23.7 percent this season). His numbers this year are even more impressive given that he was slowed by a right elbow issue early and a right oblique problem more recently.

The only thing to keep an eye on is his aggressiveness at the plate. His knack for contact is largely a plus, but it has also meant at times that he likes to swing at everything. Even with his incredible production in 2025, he’s also produced a 35-percent chase rate. When he limits that to pitches one ball out of the zone, per Synergy, he’s still productive, with a .588 SLG. When he expands beyond that? Synergy reports that he’s put up a .116/.435/.203 line with a 52-percent miss rate on 605 total out-of-zone pitches. That’s something big league pitchers will likely try to exploit. His ability to adjust and not get himself out will be a key to just how much success he has right out of the gate.

The other question that’s surrounded Basallo has been where his ultimate defensive home will be. At 6-foot-4, he’s big for a catcher, though he’s always possessed 70-grade arm strength, something that’s returned after he was limited to DH duties early this year because of the elbow. He gets very high marks for his vastly improved handling of pitchers and his leadership behind the plate. His receiving has gotten better, though even those who believe he can catch long-term recognize how young he is, how many more reps he needs and the work he needs to do to catch regularly at the big league level (putting aside the fact that Rutschman is there).

He can play a capable first base, as well, and it’s probable the Orioles will move him around during his debut -- getting him time behind the dish, at first and at DH. Remember he’ll be 21 for nearly all of next season, so there’s time for him to develop and adjust to Major League pitching. And when he does, he’s going to be a productive hitter, regardless of his position, for a very long time.