NEW! Top 150 Draft Prospects: Major changes, big jumps highlight list

The Washington Nationals are on the clock.

OK, not quite yet, but they do have the No. 1 pick in this year’s Draft, and MLB Pipeline has an updated and expanded Draft Top 150, ranking the players all 30 teams are criss-crossing the country to see to line up their own boards.

The very top of the list stays the same as it did with our Top 100 back in December with Ethan Holliday, son of Matt, brother of Jackson, still at No. 1.

The Top 10:
1. Ethan Holliday, SS/3B, Stillwater HS, Okla.
2. Seth Hernandez, RHP, Corona HS, Calif.
3. Jamie Arnold, LHP, Florida State
4. Eli Willits, SS, Fort Cobb-Broxton HS, Okla.
5. Aiva Arquette, 2B, Oregon State
6. Billy Carlson, SS, Corona HS, Calif.
7. Jace LaViolette, OF, Texas A&M
8. Kyson Witherspoon, RHP, Oklahoma
9. Kade Anderson, LHP, Louisiana State
10. Liam Doyle, LHP, Tennessee
Complete list »

“You look at the top of the board and I would imagine every team has that group of the first 10 in a different order, maybe even internally there probably are some split camps on which players should be ahead,” an American League scouting director said. “I think the overall depth has a chance to be solid. There isn’t a cliff the talent falls off of past the top 10; there should be good value all the way through the Comp A and sandwich rounds. What makes it tough to scout is you have to sift through that whole group. It’s primarily high school position players which we’ve spent time trying to run down across the country.”

If there is any consensus about this year’s class, it’s that high school shortstops are the strength. There are three in the top 10 and 11 prep infielders in the top 30 alone.

“Despite the lack of consensus at the top, I do think there is some interesting depth in this class as a whole,” a National League scouting director said. “High school middle infielders are going to fly because it’s the strength of the Draft and teams are going to lean into that.”

It starts at the very top with Holliday, who even with a bit of an uneven summer, has a very good chance to be taken No. 1 overall by the Nationals, who are believed to be focusing most of those efforts on Holliday, Hernandez, Arnold and Arquette.

“Holiday could go 1-1,” an NL national crosschecker said. “He has the size, tools, bloodlines, raw power, defensive agility. He has impact upside and that's what you want up top."

“I know he scuffled some this summer and he had a few days this spring when he didn’t perform in front of big crowds, but it’s hard to bet against the Holliday bloodlines,” the AL scouting director said. “He has the most exciting swing in this Draft and he’s looking like a better defender than some people thought.

“I think he’s going to hit enough and be a real impact player. It’s likely third base in the end, but he’ll likely stay on the dirt and he still has youth on his side as one of the younger players in the class. There’s just tremendous upside.”

Hernandez could be an interesting test case. A high school right-handed pitcher has never been taken No. 1 overall in the Draft, and the history of those who have gone No. 2 has been mixed. But he has drawn comparisons to one of the No. 2 pick success stories, Josh Beckett, and he’s separated himself as having the best combination of size and stuff of any arm -- high school or college -- in the class.

“I haven’t seen the whole country,” a SoCal area scout for an NL club said. “But if he’s not in the discussion for 1-1, what are we doing?”

"Hernandez is the best pitcher I've seen this year by far,” the crosschecker said. “He has that stigma of the high school right-hander going 1-1, but he's a strike-thrower and he's been good for a long time. He has one of the most advanced high school changeups I've ever seen, he spins the ball, he has velocity and he has a good delivery. He'll be able to handle the pressure if he's the top pick."

At No. 3, Arnold provides a little more safety, and a very long track record of success in a competitive conference at a top program.

“I think he’s the closest guy to the big leagues in that college pitching group,” the AL scouting director said. “He had a couple of speed bumps, but he’s been better of late. His resume is really good for his three-year run at Florida State.”

While no other college arms have joined Arnold in the No. 1 pick conversation, there are a number who have made large jumps into the top third of the first-round territory. Witherspoon, the right-hander from Oklahoma, leapt from No. 26 in December up to No. 8 and he’s followed by a pair of lefties in Anderson at LSU (formerly No. 44) and Doyle, the Tennessee southpaw who was all the way down at No. 75.

“In a college pitching class without much definition beyond the top guy, Witherspoon, Anderson and Doyle have pushed their way to the top by consistently showing stuff and performance every week,” another NL scouting director said.

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After Hernandez, the high school pitching crop is a little thin up top. Kruz Schoolcraft, out of Sunset High School in Oregon, is still the top prep left-hander, coming in at No. 11 on the Top 150, but there isn’t another high school arm on the list until No. 32, though he certainly is intriguing. Jack Bauer, from Lincoln-Way East HS in Illinois, has made waves for popping 102 mph on the radar gun with his fastball and jumping onto the list after not making the Top 100 in December.

Teams often gravitate toward college hitters who perform because there is relatively less risk, especially if it’s someone with a track record of success in a big program or conference. There haven’t been as many advanced bats floating to the top, though LaViolette has turned things around after a very rough start to his season at Texas A&M to cement his place in the top 10. There’s some depth in this demographic a bit later on, but there is a lack of up-the-middle types after Arquette.

“The college group is very corner-heavy,” the first NL scouting director said. “There are some good hitters who are performing, but it’s a tougher profile in the first round.”

As every scout will tell you, every Draft class provides big leaguers, All-Stars and maybe even Hall of Famers. The lack of clarity this year, though, has made for some interesting scouting and conversations about what direction to head in.

“It's just been a crazy year,” the NL crosschecker said. “I think there's a lot of depth but there's not as much star power as normal. There's not as much separation and it's not as clearly defined in the top 10. I think this is a Draft where as an organization you just have to value what you really like and then go get it."