10 players exceeding expectations in 2025

It's that time of year again -- time to see which big leaguers have most exceeded expectations in 2025.

There's more than one way to do that, but for our yearly bird's-eye view, we turn to ZiPS, the projection system created by FanGraphs' Dan Szymborski, to compare every player's projected fWAR to their actual fWAR. ZiPS, which takes into consideration recent performance, aging curves, injuries and play-by-play data, turns out some of the most accurate preseason projections on offer. So when it "misses," so to speak, it does get our attention.

Granted, a player who overshoots his projected fWAR isn't always a shocking breakout star. Sometimes the explanation is less exciting. Most often, those are situations in which a player just doesn't have much data to work with over the period of time ZiPS considers: the last four seasons for players ages 24-38 and the last three for everyone else. For that reason, the list below won't include anyone who missed a significant amount of time between 2021 and '24 (Matthew Boyd and Jacob deGrom being the most notable). To better curate a list of guys to watch going forward, we've also eliminated players confirmed to be out for the season (best wishes, Kris Bubic).

That still left us with 10 players who've really outdone themselves in 2025 -- here they are now.

All stats through Thursday's games.

Kyle Stowers, OF, Marlins
Projected: 1.1 fWAR, .730 OPS
Actual: 4.0 fWAR, .912 OPS

The single largest fWAR gainer at the time of writing, Stowers had three home runs over 69 games last season, and his initial 50-game stint with the Marlins after he was traded was especially ugly. ZiPS "optimistically" projected 17 homers and a .233/.310/.420 line for him in 2025 -- at the time of his IL placement on Aug. 17, he was hitting .288/.368/.544 with 25 home runs. Stowers is expected back from his left oblique injury before the end of the season, but even if his recovery doesn't go to plan, there's nothing else he has to do to prove he can hit. For one of the most notable measurable sources of improvement, see his pulled airball rate, up over 13 points from 2024 (10.1% -> 23.7%).

Geraldo Perdomo, SS, D-backs
Projected: 2.2 fWAR, .703 OPS
Actual: 5.0 fWAR, .826 OPS

For Perdomo, the concern was whether his bat would ever truly catch up to his glove. Reaching base wasn't really an issue -- he's ranked in the 95th percentile in whiff rate and chase rate in each of the last three seasons. This year, he's hitting more line drives and handling breaking balls in a way he never has before, helping bring his average up to .287 and his current home run total to 13 (of his 27 total). He's also walking (13.7%) more than he's striking out (10.8%), and outperforming his projected numbers there, as well. All that plus 22 steals and his defense up the middle, and Perdomo, still just 25 years old, is suddenly a top-10 player in terms of fWAR.

Nick Kurtz, 1B, Athletics
Projected: 0.9 fWAR, .704 OPS
Actual: 4.1 fWAR, 1.054 OPS

Kurtz was drafted 13 months ago, so the 104-game 2025 season ZiPS projected (.256 AVG, 11 HR) was dependent on an unusually quick turnaround. To make a long story short, meet your frontrunner for AL Rookie of the Year (if you believe us, that is). No matter how finely-tuned the model, hitting .315, slugging .650 and going 6-for-6 as part of the first four-homer game ever authored by a rookie just can't be predicted. Kurtz has underperformed in one area -- while ZiPS projected a 22.0% strikeout percentage for him, he's much closer to 30% -- but that's a tolerable trade-off for a run of 26 home runs in 87 games.

Jesús Luzardo, LHP, Phillies
Projected: 1.4 fWAR, 4.45 ERA
Actual: 3.8 fWAR, 4.10 ERA

Luzardo has had a few false starts, leaving ZiPS to project him for about 20 games. Coming into the last week of August, he's made 25 starts. His ERA is still inflated from a nightmarish week in which he gave up 20 earned runs in 5 2/3 innings across consecutive games on May 31 and June 5 -- consider that a blip. Luzardo has (mostly) been a different guy in 2025, thanks in large part to a brand new strikeout pitch -- a sweeper against which opponents have a 44.6% whiff rate.

Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF, Cubs
Projected: 3.5 fWAR, .727 OPS
Actual: 5.4 fWAR, .808 OPS

The power surge caught ZiPS off guard, too. Projected for 16 home runs and 31 stolen bases, with over a month left on the schedule, Crow-Armstrong is three homers short of a 30-30 season. Most of his value was expected to come from his defense in center, which clearly hasn't been the case, but that, too, has been better than anticipated; projected for 11.4 Defensive Runs Above Average, FanGraphs' own position-adjusted metric, he's up to 16.5.

Kyle Schwarber, DH, Phillies
Projected: 2.2 fWAR, .803 OPS
Actual: 4.2 fWAR, .957 OPS

At 32, Schwarber may be having his best year, and it wouldn't be accurate to say it came out of nowhere, but it definitely bucked a trend. Schwarber hit 93 home runs from 2022-23 but struggled to keep off the interstate (.207 AVG); he got his average all the way up to .248 last season but failed to reach the 40-HR mark (champagne problems). He's finally managed to combine the two this year, hitting .249 with 45 home runs, two short of his career high, with over a month left in the regular season -- all quite far from the middle ground .220, 36-homer season recent history suggested was more likely.

Cal Raleigh, C, Mariners
Projected: 5.1 fWAR, .764 OPS
Actual: 7.1 fWAR, .944 OPS

As a rule, no projection model will ever tell you a player is going to have the best offensive season ever recorded at his position. ZiPS predicted a very typical Cal Raleigh campaign -- a .228 batting average with 28 home runs and 80 RBIs. Credit where it's due, the average isn't too far off, but we can't say the same about the rest. Raleigh is almost certainly going to become the first primary catcher to hit 50 home runs in a season, which could very well be followed by him taking over the record for the highest single-season home run total as a catcher, currently held by Javy Lopez (42 in 2003).

Maikel Garcia, INF, Royals
Projected: 2.6 fWAR, .674 OPS
Actual: 4.4 fWAR, .827 OPS

His projected .256/.313/.361 line tells you all you need to know about him as a hitter -- excellent bat-to-ball skills, high swing rate, the kind of guy who almost needs to hit .300 to add value to a lineup. He's done exactly that. In a matter of a year, he's added 70 points to his batting average (.301), 83 to his on-base percentage (.364) and 134 to his slugging percentage (.466). He ranks among the league's best in squared-up rate, a list dominated by the best contact hitters in baseball, and even though he's coming into more power than you see in comparable hitters -- think Luis Arraez or Steven Kwan -- he's still doing well to focus on being a line drive hitter with an all-fields approach.

Hunter Brown, RHP, Astros
Projected: 2.4 fWAR, 4.09 ERA
Actual: 4.2 fWAR, 2.36 ERA

Maybe the most foreseeable entry, Brown will have popped up on your radar due to the Astros' second-half rebound last season, during which he posted a 2.26 ERA over his final 12 starts. That was a personal rebound as well -- after having a tough rookie season in 2023, he had an awful start to 2024, both of which heavily factored into his 2025 projections. He's spent the entire season instead proving that he'd just needed some time to settle in. Currently 10-5 with a 2.36 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 6.3 H/9 and 10.3 K/9, he's completely disrupted the anticipated Tarik Skubal vs. Garrett Crochet for AL Cy Young debate.

Zach McKinstry, INF/OF, Tigers
Projected: 1.1 fWAR, .679 OPS
Actual: 2.8 fWAR, .774 OPS

The Tigers make liberal use of their bench, and McKinstry is one of several utility players on the roster who can easily get into 100 games even without a significant injury to a starter. His 2025 projections (.237/.305/.374, 8 HR, 13 SB) likely would have constituted his best offensive season -- his actual 2025 season definitely is. He's limited by his bat speed, so his surface-level improvements are relatively modest (.259/.337/.438, 10 HR, 19 SB), but they've been enough to justify him having a regular spot in the lineup, allowing for A.J. Hinch to make greater use of his baserunning -- McKinstry is actually the best in baseball at taking an extra base once he's reached (72%, T-1st among qualifying players), now the defining characteristic of Tigers baseball.