Keller takes another hard-luck loss: 'Control what I can control'

PITTSBURGH -- During his All-Star campaign in 2023, Mitch Keller posted a 3.24 FIP through his first 14 starts and went 8-2. During his first 14 starts in 2024, he had a 3.61 FIP, as well as an 8-4 record.

Through 14 starts in 2025, his FIP is in the same neighborhood again, sitting at 3.31. Tuesday was his 10th quality start of the season, too, a sign that he has consistently put his team in a position to compete and potentially win.

That hasn’t been the case. Keller suffered his ninth straight losing decision Tuesday, as a late rally by the Pirates was not enough to extend their four-game winning streak, falling to the Marlins at PNC Park, 3-2.

Keller now sits at 1-9 on the year, his only win coming in the Pirates’ second game of the season against these Marlins. He’ll admit that Tuesday wasn’t his best outing, with Nick Fortes’ third-inning two-run shot off a sinker being the crucial blow, but a case could be made that he deserved a better fate.

Or if nothing else, he’s due for just a little break to go his way. His peripherals are more or less in line with that All-Star campaign, but his ERA is noticeably above the predictors at 4.15, and he’s been on the losing end far more often than anyone expected.

“That's why I try not to look too much into it,” Keller said about his expected stats being much better than his actual ones. “I feel like I'm throwing the ball well. I feel healthy and I feel like my stuff's coming out, I feel like it's getting better as the year goes on, so that's always a positive.”

He’s the first Pirates starter to lose nine straight decisions since JT Brubaker in 2021, but Brubaker was in his first full (non-COVID shortened) season and in a slump (posting an ERA over 7.00 during the skid) for a team that lost 101 games. That’s a recipe for a bushel of losses. Keller is a veteran on a team that’s played much better ball of late, going 15-15 under new manager Don Kelly. The end result has been the same.

Over his last 13 starts, Keller is 0-9 with nine quality starts. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, the last pitcher to go winless, have at least nine losses and record at least nine quality starts in a 13-game stretch was John Buzhardt for the 1960 Phillies.

“[He] gave us a chance to win,” Kelly said. “Competed, battled and that's what he does every time he goes out there … finds a way to give us a chance to win the ballgame. Almost came through there in the ninth and pulled it off."

That late rally was sparked in the eighth when Ke’Bryan Hayes and Oneil Cruz launched solo home runs to pull the Pirates back to within one. Spencer Horwitz was hit by a pitch to start the ninth, followed by a Nick Gonzales single and a swinging bunt by Adam Frazier that put the potential winning run in scoring position with one out. Instead, Henry Davis popped out to shallow right and Hayes struck out to end the game.

"It's tough, man,” Kelly said. “He's pitched well enough to win some ballgames. He's done a great job, like he did tonight, with giving us a chance to win. Unfortunately, there's been a lot of times where we haven't been able to come through in those instances. Just hoping in the ninth inning, he doesn't get the loss. He doesn't get the win either, but we'd get the team win, and that's ultimately what we're after."

Keller has kept his head up during this stretch, not voicing any frustration over the lack of run support to either the media or his team. His focus is introspective, with the hope that it will finally start to translate into wins again.

“The challenge is going out there every night trying to not give up runs against other lineups,” Keller said. “That's the challenge for me and that's the challenge I'll always take out there. I try to control what I can control.”