Can Machado reach 3,000 hits, 500 HRs? His pace looks good

This story was excerpted from AJ Cassavell’s Padres Beat newsletter and has been updated following Machado's 2,000th hit. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

SAN DIEGO -- Manny Machado turned 33 on Sunday. A day later, he celebrated with a milestone.

Machado became the fifth active player to surpass 2,000 hits with a pair of singles and a homer on Monday night against the Diamondbacks. That puts him in some remarkable company. Last month, Machado reached the 350-homer mark. Only 11 other players have reached those two numbers -- 2,000 hits and 350 home runs -- in their age-32 season or earlier.

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Those 11 players? Eight are Hall of Famers -- Hank Aaron, Jimmie Foxx, Lou Gehrig, Ken Griffey Jr., Mickey Mantle, Willie Mays, Mel Ott and Frank Robinson. The other three are Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols (who are not yet eligible) and Alex Rodriguez.

So, yeah, Machado is on a Hall of Fame trajectory.

“Consistency is what ultimately wins,” said Padres manager Mike Shildt. “For an individual player to have that kind of career -- consistency allows whatever talent you have to come out and be on display. … Manny, from a consistency standpoint, has been very good in his career.”

Keep up that consistency, and there are quite a few milestones Machado could still achieve. He’s under contract for eight more seasons after this one. Here’s what Machado has within his sights during that time.

1. 3,000 hits

Two players have reached the 3,000-hit milestone while playing for the Padres -- Tony Gwynn in 1999 and Rickey Henderson in 2001. Machado is on pace to become the third.

It’s certainly not a foregone conclusion. But Machado would only need to average about 115 hits per season for the duration of his contract to reach that mark.

Given the way he’s swinging right now, you’d expect him to get there. Machado is currently in the midst of one of his best seasons, hits and average-wise. He’s never finished a full season batting above .300, but he entered play Monday hitting .288. He’s on pace for 180 hits, which would be his most in seven years.

2. 500 home runs

Willie McCovey and Gary Sheffield are both one-time Padres who reached the 500 home run club. But no player has ever reached that milestone while playing for the Padres.

Machado hit his 357th home run as hit No. 2,001 on Monday night against Arizona. That leaves him needing just over 17 per season for the rest of his Padres tenure to reach 500. Presently, Machado is reliably mashing 30 taters per season in San Diego. Even if his power production tails off, he should be on pace to reach that number.

Perhaps the most interesting question: Which milestone does Machado reach first? For most of his career, the home run milestones came quicker than the hits. But recently, Machado has been so good at hitting for average, it might be close. (Personally? I’m rooting for Machado’s 500th home run to also be his 3,000th hit.)

3. Padres' RBI record

Nearly all of the Padres’ offensive records are held by one man -- Gwynn. Machado spent his first seven seasons with the Orioles; there’s almost no way he tracks down Gwynn on the bulk of those milestones. Meanwhile, he’s already set the franchise home run record, having passed Nate Colbert last season. Machado is now at 180 and counting.

As such, there’s only one legitimately notable franchise record Machado can reasonably track down: Gwynn’s RBI mark. And it’ll be a close one.

Across 20 seasons, Gwynn knocked in 1,138 runs -- 500-plus more than Dave Winfield in second. Machado sits at third with 588. So he’s more than halfway there. And, in theory, he’s not yet halfway through his Padres tenure.

Of course, RBIs can be tricky, and they’re largely dependent on hitters in front of you. But Machado will be sharing a lineup with Jackson Merrill and Fernando Tatis Jr. over that time, so he ought to have plenty of opportunity.

About 65 RBIs per season across the duration of Machado’s contract would get it done.

4. First Padres World Series

Ahh, the big one.

In no uncertain terms, the signing of Machado represented a turning point for the franchise. Also-rans for the majority of their first 50 seasons, the Padres have become perennial contenders since Machado’s arrival.

In his three trips to the postseason, Machado has mostly been solid. His seven playoff homers are the most in franchise history. But he’s yet to win the big one.

The Padres believe they have the core in place to contend for the foreseeable future, with Machado at the center of it.

No one will ever supplant Gwynn -- literally Mr. Padre -- as the defining player in franchise history. But Machado would ascend to an echelon next to Gwynn if he could deliver San Diego its long-awaited first title.