Montero's struggles continue as Tigers' 5th rotation spot remains in flux

DETROIT -- One of the trickier Trade Deadline decisions for a team holding a firm grasp on a playoff spot is to weigh upgrades for the stretch run against upgrades designed more for the postseason. Nowhere on a roster is that more apparent than at the back end of a starting rotation.

As teams look to give aces extra rest at various points in a season, a reliable fifth starter can be the difference between a playoff berth and an early trip home. Come the postseason, however, a fifth starter often becomes a reliever or a taxi squad member, as rotations typically shrink to three or four deep in best-of-five or best-of-seven series, with the last spot often coming with a short leash.

As the Blue Jays sprayed hits around Comerica Park’s vast outfield on Keider Montero in the Tigers' 6-2 loss to Toronto on Friday night, this conundrum came to mind. Then again, if Detroit’s second-half slide continues much longer, the Tigers (60-45) could find themselves in a battle for their American League Central perch before they can think about a postseason rotation.

Friday marked the third consecutive start in which Montero didn’t last five innings. The downfall looked familiar: Eight of his nine hits allowed came on either the first pitch of an at-bat or in a two-strike count. When he didn’t pay for a hittable strike to get ahead, he struggled to finish off hitters, though the latter is understandable against a Blue Jays offense with the lowest whiff rate in the Majors.

Montero became the third Tigers starter this week to not last five innings, joining Jack Flaherty and Casey Mize from Monday and Tuesday in Pittsburgh. Troy Melton grinded out five in his Major League debut on Wednesday after giving up six runs in the first three innings. Tarik Skubal, who hasn’t pitched since Sunday night in Texas, is expected back from the paternity list to face the Blue Jays on Saturday.

The way Melton finished his outing, striking out five of his final seven batters, it’s safe to expect him to get another start. The Tigers need to drop a pitcher to make room for Skubal’s return. They could return to a five-man rotation, or they could drop a reliever and stay with six starters to give everyone extra rest through the end of the month.

The Tigers’ next off-day is Thursday, which is also the MLB Trade Deadline. Their bullpen will likely look different when they begin August in Philadelphia next weekend. Whether their rotation looks different is another matter.

Like most contenders, the Tigers are expected to place a priority on fortifying their bullpen. They’ve leaned heavily on Will Vest, Tommy Kahnle, Tyler Holton and Chase Lee in leverage situations, and they could use some help, particularly a swing-and-miss arm if available. They arguably need to add strikeouts more than they need to add saves.

The importance of adding a starter is debatable, in part because of how they got here. Skubal has already proven himself capable of lifting the team in October. Flaherty is a proven postseason performer who shows signs of finding his better form. Reese Olson has suffered two bad innings since his return from the injured list at the start of the month. Mize was an All-Star who was rolling before back-to-back rough starts. There’s the makings of a postseason rotation with that group.

The Tigers have internal options if they need them, too. Melton, inexperience and all, presents a lot to like, from a high-powered fastball to swing-and-miss secondary offerings. There’s a place for him on Detroit's postseason roster -- whether it's the rotation or the bullpen.

Sawyer Gipson-Long presents another swing option if he can get back from his neck issue; his rehab assignment is currently on hold. Another arm lurking later in the season is José Urquidy, signed in March while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. His bullpen sessions made an impression during his visit to Comerica Park a couple weeks ago, and he’s on track to begin a rehab assignment in August. The 30-year-old has 46 1/3 postseason innings under his belt from his Astros tenure, including wins in World Series starts in 2019 and '21.

President of baseball operations Scott Harris could be opportunistic if a front-line option presents itself. He saw how that paid off when the Dodgers swooped in to acquire Flaherty for two prospects last year and rode him to the World Series. But the Tigers don’t have to add just to add. Despite the recent skid, there’s a lot to like.