Here's how the Guardians can make a historic run at the Tigers

On July 17, 1978, the Yankees lost to the Royals, 9-7, in 11 innings; the winning pitcher was Al Hrabosky and the losing pitcher Goose Gossage, in case you were wondering the facial hair situation that day.

The loss dropped the fourth-place Yankees to 47-42 and, more to the point, to 14 games behind the first-place Red Sox in the AL East. That race was over. Except! The Yankees went 53-21 the rest of the way, tied the Red Sox on the final day of the regular season, and then well, you may remember hearing about Bucky Dent and a certain expletive.

That 14-game deficit remains the largest any team has overcome to win a division title since the Divisional Era began in 1969. But don’t look now: There’s a non-zero chance that record ends this year.

On July 6, the Guardians lost their 10th straight game. Worse than that, it was to the AL Central-leading Tigers, who increased their division lead to 13 1/2 games over the Twins and a whopping 15 1/2 over fourth-place Cleveland. It certainly looked like that division was long done and over with. Except now, again, just more than a month later, the Guardians entered Tuesday only 6 1/2 games back (and they were five back after Saturday's games).

This is despite the fact that the Guardians did nothing to bolster their 2025 roster before the July 31 Trade Deadline, while shutdown closer Emmanuel Clase remains on non-disciplinary paid leave amid an MLB sports betting investigation. So while it’s still highly unlikely the Guardians pull this off -- FanGraphs odds gave them a 4.6% of winning the AL Central entering Monday -- it is still possible.

We could conceivably see the biggest division comeback EVER. Here are five reasons why it might happen.

1. They are getting hot at the exact right time

You don’t claw your way back from 15 1/2 games down without winning a bunch of ballgames, obviously, but it should be noted that the Guardians have the best record in the American League (21-8) since they fell eight games under .500 on July 6. (Only the Brewers have been better in all of baseball during that span.)

The offense has been a big part of this. During that 10-game losing streak earlier this year, the Guardians were actually shut out five times. But that has completely turned around. As The Athletic’s Zack Meisel pointed out, over the last five weeks, the Guardians are third in MLB in runs scored, behind only the Blue Jays and Brewers. This is despite struggles from Steven Kwan and even José Ramírez. The star over the last month has been Kyle Manzardo, who has hit like an MVP candidate over his past 30 games (.308/.390/.604). The Guardians’ offense hasn’t been consistent, but during this run, it has done the job.

2. Their bullpen has actually been better with Clase out

The Guardians were seemingly so far out of contention at the Deadline that when Clase was placed on leave a few days earlier, the biggest implication for Cleveland seemed to be the club would not be able to use him as a trade chip. While the Guardians certainly could use Clase in the bullpen right now, the pieces forced to step up in his absence have in fact done so in a big way.

Cade Smith has been a seamless transition in the closer’s spot, but this team is getting contributions from everyone: Erik Sabrowski, Nic Enright (who is literally pitching this season *between cancer treatments), Jakob Junis, even swingman Kolby Allard. They, somehow, have the best bullpen ERA in baseball since July 7, at 2.26. That’s, fair to say, not how *most teams react when they lose their star closer (who also happens to be their best pitcher).

3. The schedule provides some real opportunities

If the Guardians are going to make a real run at the Tigers, this is the time to do it. They have nine straight games against teams with losing records: Six at home against the Marlins and Braves and three on the road against the Diamondbacks. It tightens up a little in September -- though they do get three against the White Sox that month -- but the key is to be within striking distance heading into the season’s final 12 days.

They’ll play the Tigers six times, three on the road and three at home, starting on Sept. 16. If they can just whittle down that deficit before then (and that’s further in the future than July 7 is in the past), they will have the team they are chasing right there in front of them – and surely feeling the heat at that point.

4. The Tigers’ fun storylines are fading

Remember when Javier Báez was an All-Star? He was! Seriously! Well, since the All-Star Game, Báez was hitting .220 with one home run, 20 strikeouts (in 59 at-bats) and, remarkably, zero walks entering play Monday. That kind of thing is happening all around, though.

A Tigers lineup that was ninth in the Majors in OBP in the first half (.324) is 29th in the second half (.289). Kerry Carpenter has been better in that time, but no one else has. Even Riley Greene is hitting .200/.210/.338 with a 28.3% K-rate. Fellow All-Star Zach McKinstry is at .190/.266/.362.

At times this year, it felt like every Tiger was overperforming. It very much no longer feels that way.

5. Detroit’s pitching has imploded

Remember the playoffs last year, when the Tigers essentially had to go with, in the words of manager A.J. Hinch, Tarik Skubal and “pitching chaos?” That’s pretty much where they are right now … except even Skubal is slumping by his standards, with a 3.68 ERA over his past five starts. Since July 9, the Tigers have a 5.47 ERA, third worst in all of baseball, ahead of only the Rockies and Nationals.

The key to much of the Tigers’ success this year was their stable rotation, but it doesn’t seem too stable right now. It’s tough to find a Detroit pitcher who hasn’t struggled during this tough stretch, particularly Casey Mize (7.32 ERA in his past five outings). The Tigers added Charlie Morton and Chris Paddack to their rotation at the Deadline; both were up and down in their first two starts with the team.

Look: The Tigers are still likely to win this division. But that we’re even talking about the possibility of the Guardians catching up speaks to how much this division has changed, and how quickly. And if it happened in the last month … it could certainly happen again in the next one.