Blue Jays trying to navigate No. 5 spot in Scherzer's absence

TORONTO -- The final spot in the rotation has forced the Blue Jays to face the gambler's dilemma.

You’ve got to know when to hold ‘em, know when to fold ‘em, know when to walk away and when to run. Until Max Scherzer’s right thumb cooperates, the Blue Jays are stuck with these questions looming over them every fifth day, and it isn’t easy to cash out at the right time.

Eric Lauer is the latest hand the Blue Jays have played, and the journeyman southpaw had done everything right to earn Friday’s start. Pitching as a true starter this time instead of the bulk guy or an extended opener, Lauer gave the Blue Jays 4 1/3 innings of three-run ball in the 3-1 loss to the Rays at George M. Steinbrenner Field. The loss belongs to the Blue Jays’ offense, which went cold after sweeping the Padres, but the uncertainty around the No. 5 spot remains.

This isn’t new. In camp, Yariel Rodríguez was stretched out and nearly opened in the rotation when Scherzer went down. Easton Lucas came out of nowhere to make four starts -- two of them brilliant, two less so -- while we’ve also seen José Ureña, Paxton Schultz and Casey Lawrence pitch in bulk roles when this spot in the rotation comes around.

Lauer knows this life well, bouncing between bulk roles. He appreciates how the Blue Jays have communicated the plans and was happy to get up to 85 pitches this time, but like most pitchers, he also values some level of predictability.

“It’s a weird role to bounce back and forth and you want that solid ground to stand on,” Lauer said, “mostly for in between. As starters, we have very specific routines that we go through all week trying to mold and shape that, but it’s been nice because they’ve given me plenty of notice.”

For now, the Blue Jays are surviving it. Now, they need to get through the next few weeks without it hurting them.

IT STARTS WITH THE SCHEDULE

There’s no way around this stretch of the schedule. After playing these 13 games in 13 days, the Blue Jays have another nine-game stretch coming out of the off day.

“Turn the sprinklers on, maybe,” manager John Schneider joked. Anything for a day off.

Right now, the No. 5 spot is due to come up again against the Rangers on Wednesday, the last game of the road trip. This brings us to the Blue Jays’ next decision.

Option 1: Skip the No. 5 spot in the rotation coming out of the off day on Monday, June 2, which would require it to come up only once in their next stretch of nine games.

Option 2: Give the veteran starters the extra off day -- something they could surely use -- and turn to the No. 5 spot twice during that nine-game stretch coming out of the June 2 off day.

Perhaps an even higher priority for the Blue Jays, if the opening presents itself, is shuffling the order of their rotation. Bowden Francis has been struggling this season with a 5.54 ERA and has pitched five or more innings just once in his last six starts. That bullpen usage right in front of this No. 5 spot isn’t how anyone would draw this up from scratch.

“Ideally, you can separate Bowden and a start like today,” Schneider said, “when you’re tempted to go to the ‘pen early and you can’t kill those guys."

WHEN WILL SCHERZER RETURN?

Your guess is still as good as anyone’s, given that Scherzer has repeatedly said that he only gets the true feel for his thumb when he approaches 50-plus pitches, but we’re getting closer to having a roadmap back for the likely future Hall of Famer.

Saturday, Scherzer will throw another bullpen session near his home in Jupiter, Fla. He’ll do the same on Monday, then fly to meet the Blue Jays in Texas for their series against the Rangers. If these sessions go well, they should put Scherzer very close to facing some live hitters, which is right where he was a couple of weeks ago when some mid-back tightness stalled his ramp-up.

It’s been difficult to get to this conversation point since Scherzer’s thumb flared up again in spring, but if Scherzer can get back on the mound at full health, he is still a very effective pitcher who can raise this team’s ceiling.

Until then, the Blue Jays need to make the right gambles at the right times, which is always a dangerous game to play.