Ranking each division race with stretch run on deck

We have reached the point of the season when you really have to make sure to look at the standings every day.

It’s late enough that every game can make a seismic difference, but also early enough that there’s still adequate time to make a sprint upward if your team happens to get hot. This is the playoff chase in its purest form: You gotta win, and you gotta make sure the teams you’re chasing -- or the teams that are chasing you -- lose. It’s scoreboard watching season.

Even in an era of expanded playoffs, division championships still absolutely matter: You want a first-round bye and home-field advantage in the Division Series, which goes to the two division title teams with the best records in each league. And you want all the merch that says “Division Champion” that you can get for that tough-to-pin-down relative come holiday season.

So how are each of the six division races shaping up? Here’s a ranking.

1. American League West
Astros lead Mariners by 1.5

The difference between the Astros and the other division leaders on this list is that they have not one but two teams hot on their heels. The Mariners were as aggressive as almost anyone at the Trade Deadline and suddenly look like they have the complete team they’ve been trying to construct for, oh, two decades. And the Rangers (4 1/2 back) have found themselves as well in the last few weeks, particularly with a starting rotation that has the best ERA in the Majors.

It’s actually rather remarkable the Astros are in first place at all, considering the injuries they have dealt with this season, especially in their rotation. Yordan Alvarez hasn’t played since May 2, and Jeremy Peña missed more than a month before recently returning to the lineup. And of course, there was that little matter of losing Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman in the offseason.

Then again, remember: Every full season since 2017 has ended with the Astros winning the AL West, so we shouldn’t be too surprised by any of this. Can they keep the streak going? Can the Mariners win the division for the first time since Julio Rodríguez was still in diapers? Can the Rangers finally be the team they clearly believe themselves to be? Your guess is as good as mine. You can’t skip a night in this division.

2. National League East
Phillies lead Mets by 2 1/2

This was supposed to be the big three-team race, but the Braves scuttled that by falling well behind early and haven't recovered; it is still pretty remarkable that they are far behind the Marlins for third place. As fun as the Marlins have been for the last month, they’re obviously not in this race, which means, once again, it’s all down to the Phillies and the Mets.

The two rivals have been trading the division lead back and forth all season, with the gang from Philly most recently pulling in front on Sunday. They have since given themselves a little elbow room, thanks in part to the Mets dropping eight of nine, including getting swept at home by Cleveland this week.

• The Mets-Phillies rivalry's best, most notable games

But with these two teams at each other’s throats, nothing is going to stay stable for very long. Even better: They still have seven games left against each other, including a monster four-game set in early September at Citizens Bank Park. (The crowd might be a little into that one, methinks.)

3. American League East
Blue Jays lead Red Sox by 4

It is truly amazing how much has changed for the Blue Jays in a year. Just before the 2024 Trade Deadline, there was rampant speculation that they were going to trade away Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and anything else not nailed down, ending this era of Blue Jays baseball and potentially embarking upon a long and painful rebuild. Instead, they’re now in first place, with a rabid fanbase starting to wonder if maybe this is the year.

But as always, everyone’s amped up in this division. The Red Sox have been the hottest team in baseball for a month now, and one of the clubs they’ve left in their wake is the Yankees, whose Deadline acquisitions have been a mixed bag since arriving. But they’re still the Yankees, and they are obviously highly motivated. So if the Jays and Sox are hoping New York will fully collapse, they’re kidding themselves -- especially with New York's final 13 games of the season coming against teams with losing records.

This division seems likely to go down to the wire. Also keep an eye on the Rays, who could have one last kick in them and will play 10 of their final 13 games against the Jays and Red Sox.

4. National League West
Dodgers lead Padres by 2

The Padres are forever chasing the Dodgers, and that they never quite seem to catch them is a reason to praise their Sisyphean quest more rather than less. A.J. Preller went huge at the Deadline, potentially at the cost of some of the Padres’ future, but you have to respect him going for it, and you can tell by the Petco Park crowds these days that the fans certainly appreciate the effort. The Padres, who haven’t had a share of first place in almost three months, are now as close as they have been since mid-June. There’s also this: The six remaining games between the two teams all come in the next few weeks.

• Top moments in Dodgers-Padres rivalry

Even if the Padres don’t catch the Dodgers, well, the story won’t end there: They’ve already faced each other in the postseason three times this decade. Don’t forget that heading into last postseason, many prognosticators picked the Padres to make it out of the NL, and they were this close to doing so. But for what it’s worth, there would be no greater statement for the Padres to make than winning this division for the first time since … wow, 2006.

5. National League Central
Brewers lead Cubs by 4

It is a measure of our excellent division races right now that this one -- between two geographic rivals whose fanbases tend to drive each other nuts -- is all the way down at No. 5. The Brewers have shocked the entire sport over the last month: Since May 25, they are a jaw-dropping 45-16. The Cubs have hardly collapsed or anything, but even the best teams in baseball -- which you can still argue the Cubs are among -- aren’t going to be able to keep pace with that. And so, a Chicago club that once held a 6 1/2-game edge now finds itself in a bit of a hole.

Neither team was all that active at the Deadline, which feels more of an indictment of the Cubs than the Brewers. After all, the former is supposed to be deeply invested in winning this year, what with the whole Kyle Tucker As Pending Free Agent thing. The latter is so hot right now that you can understand why they wouldn’t want to mess with anything.

Still, even without major additions, the Cubs are stacked with talent, and if the Brewers cool off at all (and they have to at some point … right?), the Cubs are going to be right there. (A five-game series at Wrigley Field from Aug. 18-21, which includes a doubleheader, could go a long way.) It wouldn’t be the least bit surprising to see whoever wins the division end up with the best record in baseball.

6. American League Central
Tigers lead Guardians by 6

You have to wonder if the Tigers are starting to hear some footsteps. Even with the slump they have been in, losing 16 out of 23, they aren’t exactly in serious danger; they have the biggest division lead in the Majors. Still, that lead is a lot smaller than it used to be, shrinking down from 14 games just a month ago.

At the time, it didn’t seem like any of the teams behind the Tigers looked capable of -- or invested in -- making a charge at them. But that was before the reigning division champion Guardians reeled off a 19-7 stretch, culminating in a road sweep of the Mets.

It has been more than a decade since the Tigers got to put up a division title pennant at Comerica Park. It still seems like they are about to end that drought, but they no longer have the cushion they once did. A.J. Hinch’s ballclub needs to pull it together sooner rather than later. Otherwise, the six Guardians-Tigers games scheduled for the second half of September could mean a lot more than we once thought.