After almost 2 years away, he looks like a different pitcher -- and is dominating

How about these 2025 Brewers?

Sporting the best record in MLB, the Brewers have taken the baseball world by storm, reeling off three separate win streaks of at least eight games and most recently winning a franchise-record 14 straight games to begin the month of August.

As MLB.com’s own Mike Petriello wrote about, there’s no shortage of castoffs and unknowns who have helped baseball’s top team. But there’s one familiar face who has returned in 2025 to play a pivotal role in Milwaukee’s epic run.

Brandon Woodruff was one of baseball’s best pitchers from 2019-23, when he had a 2.93 ERA and 3.10 FIP across 103 starts, which were top-10 figures among any pitcher with at least 300 innings. Woodruff, however, only threw 67 innings in 2023 before succumbing to October 2023 shoulder surgery to repair his anterior capsule, forcing him to miss all of 2024 and a good chunk of the ‘25 season.

After several non-shoulder-related setbacks in his rehab process this year, Woodruff made his season debut on July 6 against the Marlins, tossing six innings of one-run ball with eight strikeouts. The 32-year-old hasn’t looked back since, posting a 2.06 ERA with 49 strikeouts and eight walks in seven starts this season, heading into Tuesday’s start against the Cubs.

While Woodruff appears to be back in his pre-injury form based on the surface numbers, there’s also an element of mystery to exactly how he has accomplished that. This is a different sort of pitcher than we’ve seen before, and the new profile is an interesting one. Here is how Woodruff’s long-awaited return has -- and hasn’t -- come with such immediate success.

The following numbers are entering Monday's games.

He’s dominating with diminished stuff, a new pitch and more fastballs

By several measures, Woodruff has been one of the best starters since he returned in early July.

His 2.06 ERA is seventh-best among qualified starters since July 6. He’s running the third-highest strikeout rate (33.3 percent) behind Zack Wheeler and Paul Skenes in that time, while running a miniscule 5.4 percent walk rate. His 0.74 WHIP is tied with Nick Pivetta for the best mark during this stretch.

Here’s the kicker: Woodruff’s velocity is down across the board by a significant margin, which is not terribly surprising considering he’s returning from a major shoulder surgery.

After sitting at 96.0 mph on his fastball (four-seamer and sinker) at his peak and 95.5 mph in 2023, Woodruff’s average heater is down to 93.0 mph this season. It’s the same story for his changeup (down 2.1 mph from 2023) and curveball (down 3.9 mph). Woodruff’s 94 Stuff+ -- which looks at the physical characteristics of a pitch -- is significantly lower than his career 109 mark.

So, how exactly is Woodruff pulling this off, then, with worse stuff? It’s a question that FanGraphs’ Davy Andrews wrote about recently, as did Marquee Sports Network’s Lance Brozdowski. As both pointed out, Woodruff is relying heavily on a new cutter in exchange for his older slider, while utilizing a new sweeper on a limited basis (1.5 percent usage).

Throwing it 12.1 percent of the time, Woodruff’s cutter isn’t missing bats (11.5 percent whiff rate and no strikeouts), but it’s been an effective offering at inducing weak contact (81.7 mph average exit velocity). But the cutter isn’t the main pitch that’s driving Woodruff’s success right now. It’s the 93.1 mph four-seamer.

Woodruff has thrown his four-seamer 173 times and allowed just eight hits and a .317 slugging percentage. He’s punched out 33 hitters on the pitch, the second-most strikeouts of any pitch type since Woodruff made his season debut, despite the fact that he’s shaved the four-seamer’s usage by 8.6 percent.

Of the starting pitchers that have produced at least 50 swings against four-seamers, none has a higher whiff rate than Woodruff’s 37.4 percent clip. That’s higher than flamethrowing rotation mate Jacob Misiorowski, who is fifth with a 31.6 percent whiff rate on his 99.3 mph heater.

This hasn’t been a matter of precise command on the four-seamer, either: Woodruff is attacking hitters with the pitch in the zone, oftentimes in the middle of the zone, and succeeding. Just take a look at where he's generated some of his strikeouts on four-seam fastballs.

That’s generally not a recipe for success, but it’s working for Woodruff right now. The pitch’s effectiveness might also be playing up with more sinkers and the addition of the cutter. Woodruff’s sinker usage is up from 21.8 percent in 2023 to 31.6 percent in ‘25, and while the pitch isn’t missing bats quite like the four-seamer, it’s nonetheless been incredibly effective. Opposing hitters have just eight hits in 41 plate appearances and a .333 slugging percentage.

Woodruff’s trio of fastballs are accounting for 76 percent of his pitches, by far the highest fastball usage of his career. The usually dominant changeup is excelling yet again -- hitters have just one hit (a single) in 28 plate appearances and a 38.6 percent whiff rate -- but it’s only been thrown at a 17.7 percent rate. This is, by and large, a fastball-dominant approach for Woodruff, and it’s working.

Tons of weak contact (in the air)

Woodruff hasn’t just been one of the premier strikeout and walk artists since returning this season -- he’s also generated an unusually high amount of pop-ups.

Not to be confused with fly balls -- which actually have a chance of turning into home runs -- pop-ups don’t leave the infield and are essentially free outs. In terms of generating pop-ups, no starter has been better than Woodruff since the right-hander came back last month.

Highest pop-up rate, SP, since July 6
Min. 50 batted balls (155 qualifying pitchers)
1. Brandon Woodruff (MIL): 16.9%
2. Michael Soroka (CHC): 15.4%
3. Tyler Anderson (LAA): 15.0%
4-T. Jack Leiter (TEX): 14.8%
4-T. Cade Horton (CHC): 14.8%

Fifteen of Woodruff’s 89 batted balls have been pop-ups. Unsurprisingly, every one of those have turned into outs. When you combine that aspect with the elite strikeout-minus-walk rate -- his 27.9 percent rate is third-best behind Wheeler and Skenes -- Woodruff has been excellent from both a quality and quantity of contact perspective.

How is he getting this many pop-ups? That part is less clear. Woodruff’s career 7.1 percent pop-up rate is nearly 10 percent lower than his 16.9 percent mark this year. His best season before this year was an 11.1 percent rate in 2020, the only year he’s been in double digits before this season.

One thing that stands out is that 12 of the 15 pop-ups have come on fastballs, seven of which have come on four-seamers. Woodruff isn’t just missing tons of bats with his 93.1 mph four-seamer -- he’s also getting tons of weak pop-ups on the pitch. That signals that hitters are having a hard time seeing the pitch, despite its diminished velocity.

Woodruff’s command indicators are slightly better, but likely not enough to explain all of this success. The career-best 57.7 percent zone rate is certainly helping, but he hasn’t been on the edges of the zone more often and his chase rate is down 5.0 percent from his career norms.

Is all of this sustainable? That’s the bigger question. Woodruff probably won’t run a .171 BABIP -- that’s 101 points lower than his career .272 mark -- which can be heavily attributed to the pop-ups. But Woodruff’s made it clear across his first seven starts that hitters are both struggling to make contact against him and when they do, they’re not getting optimal batted balls.

Put it all together and Woodruff’s 2.26 expected ERA -- which looks at a hitter’s quality and quantity of contact -- is tops among starters that have faced at least 100 batters. It also means that, based simply on his pure results so far, Woodruff’s 2.06 ERA has essentially been earned.

It’s fair to bake in some regression for Woodruff moving forward. There’s also the realistic possibility that Woodruff’s pre-surgery velocity returns and that negates any regression that may be coming. All told, Woodruff is in a great position and has proved that he can be counted on as a legitimate playoff starting option.

With Milwaukee positioned to possibly finish with the best record in the Majors, the Brewers will have the enviable “problem” of sorting out their rotation in the playoffs. Rotation stalwart Freddy Peralta seems like the likely Game 1 starter in a playoff series. Woodruff or Misiorowski can take the next two games, while surprise starter Quinn Priester or veteran Jose Quintana can make the remaining starts.

Woodruff’s success has also put him in a position to land a significant payday this offseason. With a $20 million mutual option for 2026 -- mutual options pretty much always result in players reaching free agency -- Woodruff will almost certainly hit the open market this winter with a chance to land a big deal.

It’s a win-win for all parties involved but especially so for Woodruff, who is looking like a frontline starter yet again, even if he’s doing so differently.