Updated predictions for Braves' top honors: Who's on pace to lead team?

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ATLANTA -- Nick Allen is the starting shortstop. Eli White is the primary right fielder. And Scott Blewitt has made as many starts as both Spencer Strider and Reynaldo López.

Safe to say this Braves season hasn’t gone as expected. But, it’s a good thing that the team quickly realized Allen was a far better option both offensively and defensively than Orlando Arcia. It took a little longer for White to grab an everyday role, but the impact of having him replace the recently-demoted Jarred Kelenic has been significant.

As for the rotation, the absences of Strider and López have made it even more challenging for the Braves to dig out of the hole created by an 0-7 start. But while Spencer Schwellenbach has hit a rough patch, Chris Sale has righted himself and Grant Holmes has rewarded the team’s decision to continue using him as a starter.

A little more than a month into the unexpected stretch, let’s look at why it might be prudent for me to take a mulligan on my preseason predictions.

Preseason prediction: Team MVP: Austin Riley

Five months of Ronald Acuña Jr. will put him in consideration, but this is the year that everything will come together for Riley. The third baseman will enjoy his first 40-homer season and win his first Gold Glove Award.

Updated prediction: Team MVP: Riley

I promise I wrote this before yesterday’s two-homer game and then had to update the graph. It’s concerning that Riley has gone from striking out approximately one out of every four plate appearances to one out of every three thus far this year. But he has a .949 OPS over his past 26 games and he’s now on pace to hit 39 homers. He often heats up as summer approaches. If he does so again this year, he might actually be at the forefront of NL MVP talk.

Preseason prediction: Team Cy Young Award: Chris Sale

Five and a half months of Strider will put him in consideration, but as long as Sale stays healthy, he’ll make a strong bid for a second straight NL Cy Young Award. But even after missing the season’s first couple weeks, Strider will still lead the Majors in strikeouts.

Updated prediction: Sale

Strider’s candidacy took a significant hit with the hamstring strain he suffered before making his second start. As for Sale, he made it clear he felt he “sucked” for the season’s first month. But he has a 3.33 Expected ERA and he induced 24 swings and misses, his highest total since the start of 2024, while notching 10 strikeouts without a walk against the Rockies on Wednesday. The 2024 National League Cy Young Award winner is back on track and ready to pitch like an ace again.

Bold prediction: Michael Harris II will have a 30/30 season

Harris is preparing for what is just his fifth full season above the high school level. He’s already won an NL Rookie of the Year Award and has proven to be one of the game’s top defensive center fielders. Injuries have limited him in both of the past two seasons, but this is the year he will stay healthy and will back a 30-homer season with 30-plus steals.

Updated prediction: Harris will have a 20/20 season

Had I been posed this question after the last homestand, I likely would have still felt good about my preseason prediction. But the center fielder’s struggles over the past week have highlighted his .239 on-base percentage. Harris could easily go on a tear and make a 30-homer season a possibility. But he’s going to have to get on base far more frequently to make a 30/30 season a probability. He’s currently trending toward a 15/30 season.