Nola knows return to form could boost Phillies' postseason hopes

PHILADELPHIA -- Not too long ago, Aaron Nola returning to form down the stretch might have been considered a luxury for the Phillies.

Now, it's almost a must.

Making just his second start following a three-month absence, Nola allowed three runs (two earned) over six innings in Saturday night’s 6-4 win over the Nationals at Citizens Bank Park. He cruised through five innings before yielding a pair of solo homers in the sixth.

Still, it was a drastic improvement from last Sunday, when Nola allowed six runs and lasted just 2 1/3 innings -- tied for the earliest non-injury exit of his career -- against this same Nats team.

Nola's outing came just a few hours after the Phillies announced that ace Zack Wheeler will miss the remainder of the 2025 season after undergoing thoracic outlet decompression surgery in the coming weeks.

“It’s tough to lose him, especially his caliber and this part of the season,” Nola said. “It’s tough for the team and the city and the organization, but we’re going to do our best to pick him up and go win as many baseball games as possible.”

Strictly from a baseball standpoint, it's a significant blow to a Phillies team that has World Series aspirations. The starting rotation has been the club's biggest strength -- and that all starts with Wheeler.

"Obviously, as a whole, it hurts as a team," designated hitter Kyle Schwarber said. "We're going to have to come together even more as a group, because that's a big hole to fill. But I feel like we're going to have guys who step up."

No one would be bigger than Nola, who is in the second year of a seven-year, $172 million contract.

Saturday was a step in the right direction.

It wasn’t just the mostly solid six innings in which Nola struck out six and walked one. His four-seam fastball also averaged 92.6 mph, the fastest in any of his 11 outings this season.

“When the velocity is up a little bit like that, I’m on top of it a little bit more and I get a little more jump before it gets to the plate,” Nola said. “The fastball felt good tonight and it set up some other stuff, especially my curveball.”

Of course, the Phillies still have other formidable options.

Cristopher Sánchez, who has pitched like an ace in his own right all season, becomes the obvious postseason Game 1 starter in Wheeler's absence.

Beyond that, Ranger Suárez has looked like the best pitcher on the planet for long stretches in each of the past two seasons, though he's also had his struggles at times. Similarly, Jesús Luzardo has a 1.19 ERA in his 12 wins this season -- but a 7.27 ERA in his other 14 outings.

"Of course, it's never good to lose a Zack Wheeler or your No. 1 pitcher," president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said. "I think we have starting pitch depth that's capable of pitching well for us and pitching well in the postseason."

The trio of Sánchez, Suárez and Luzardo certainly has that potential ... but it's also entirely left-handed.

Therein lies the potential issue.

Most teams prefer not to give an opponent the same look three times in a row when it comes to starting right- or left-handed pitchers. That's especially true in a short postseason series such as the best-of-three National League Wild Card Series or the best-of-five NL Division Series.

Consider this: Excluding openers, no team has used a left-handed starter in each of their first three games to begin a postseason run since the 2009 Phillies. That '09 club -- which started Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and J.A. Happ in the first three games of the NLDS -- is the only team since 2000 to open a postseason with three straight lefty starters (again, excluding openers).

Only 11 teams have done that -- and none of them went on to win the World Series.

If the Phillies want to break up those left-handers come October, their options are likely limited to Nola and Taijuan Walker.

So, how essential is it to get Nola back to being Nola?

"Very important. No doubt," manager Rob Thomson said. "And I expect good things out of Nola. I really do. He's done it for a long time. He's experienced. He's gone through ruts and come out of it in the past. He's going to be fine."

This season obviously has not gone as planned for Nola.

Nola had a 6.16 ERA in nine starts before landing on the IL on May 15 due to a sprained right ankle. He then sustained a stress fracture in one of his right ribs while rehabbing that initial injury. This will be the first time he doesn't start 30 games in a season since 2017 (not including the COVID-shortened 2020 season).

That would all be forgotten if Nola helps the Phillies get where they want to go in October.

“I just need to step up, in general,” Nola said. “I need to throw some more good games. Pretty much got one month left in the regular season, and I’m going to do everything I can to give my all out there, and hopefully, put the guys in a good position to win every time I’m out there.”